But again, how many total deaths are we above average from a normal year? 125000 COVID deaths, but many of those are a one to one trade off as normal annual deaths.
No, that's actually quite incorrect. From 16 Feb to 02 May, it is estimated (see links below) that there were about 96,000 deaths MORE THAN USUAL in the United States; that's a very high percentage more than usual, and not readily explained as within a normal fluctuation. Of those, 70,000 (remember, that was two months ago, and there have been many more since then) were officially assessed as due to COVID-19. There were about 26K other unexplained excess deaths. Those could be undiagnosed COVID, or suicides from people depressed about being locked up, or deferred medical care due to fear, or other things people have complained about the social lockdowns being harmful. At any rate, as of 02 May, there were far more deaths than normal. Some scientists have theorized many of those people would have died relatively soon (as old sick people were hardest hit); we won't know unless we see death rates FALL below normal in the near future. But even if so, it would indicate many, many lost years of life from people dying earlier than they should have.
This is a good and recent summary of the "excess death" way of assessing COVID-19.
Far more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic than official Covid-19 data can account for
www.bbc.com
This article puts the excess deaths on a vertical scale and compares the numbers to other natural disasters. Annoying layout but sobering data.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html
This extremely scientific article discusses the statistical underpinnings of the excess deaths metric, including its accuracy due to varying reporting quality from various countries.
Excess mortality has become a key metric to understand the true impact of the Coronavirus pandemic. But how is excess mortality measured; and what can we learn from cross-country comparisons? Janine Aron and John Muellbauer provide an overview on excess mortality statistics.
ourworldindata.org