Stock Talk

BoyGenius

Cyber Bully Victim
Here's an interesting article debating if we are at the bottom and why:

Will the stock market rally stick, or vanish?: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

These are what I consider some notable, but conflicting points.

They talk about pumped volume, but go on to say this:

"Everyone at cocktail parties is talking about how they've moved into cash."

If the average Joe is in cash, who's doing all the so-called buying?

They say big institutional investors are buying:

"Pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance funds began snapping up bargain stocks last week after sitting things out for a while, said Stuart Frankel & Co. president Jeffrey Frankel, who works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange."

I like to use this site to verify that:

Mffais Home Page

If you look at who sold and who bought some popular stocks, I'm not convinced there's been a lot of new buying.

Another notable quote in the article, which eludes to the questionable statements above about volume:

"It's difficult to differentiate between short-covering and regular buying, but floor traders last week estimated that between 50 percent and 60 percent of Tuesday's 379-point jump in the Dow was due to short-covering."

What's it all add up to? Are we going up or down?

Put me down as saying this rally may end as soon as Monday or last for weeks, I cant say which no better than anyone else, but I'm firmly convinced we will down again, and it will be hard and painful when we do. None of the underlying problematic fundamentals that got us in this mess are fixed, but you'd never know that from watching the joyful crowd on CNBC these days.

:coffee:
 
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CrashTest

Well-Known Member
I would put a stop loss sell order on that purchase to lock in a profit while you still have it, but that's just my opinion.

:popcorn:

As Donald Trump said a few weeks ago when asked if he takes investment advice "I'm capable of loosing my own money without anyone's help".
 
Put me down as saying this rally may end as soon as Monday or last for weeks, I cant say which no better than anyone else, but I'm firmly convinced we will down again, and it will be hard and painful when we do. None of the underlying problematic fundamentals that got us in this mess are fixed, but you'd never know that from watching the joyful crowd on CNBC these days.

:coffee:

I'm not sure how you get that impression - it seems completely off base to me. You must be basing that on a small sample, or misinterpretting what you hear. I've got them on in the background most of the day, and, on the whole, they certainly aren't conveying the message that everything is fine and it's up up up from here. Quite to the contrary.

I'm sure you could find segments where some people seem overly bullish, but taken in the aggregate, that is not the message that has been coming out of them in the last week. I haven't heard more than 2 people describe this rally as anything more than a bear market rally - and that is the optimistic interpretation of the situation.

And I've heard no one tout the propriety of investing for the near term - those who are encouraging money back into the market, are clear that it is only safe if you have a long time horizon. It is clear that there are only two kinds of money that are are appropriate in the market right now - short term trading money, that can accept major loses, and very long term investment money. Very few people are pretending to know that the market will be up in 6 months or 3 years.
 

hokie11

New Member
As Donald Trump said a few weeks ago when asked if he takes investment advice "I'm capable of loosing my own money without anyone's help".

glad i bought it at jus under $1.15

got rid of half today at 2.40s, hope to flip some more before the earnings on april 17th

seems positive for the short run thus far.. and very pleased with its progress so far :) riding on free shares!! yeahhh
 

CrashTest

Well-Known Member
glad i bought it at jus under $1.15

got rid of half today at 2.40s, hope to flip some more before the earnings on april 17th

seems positive for the short run thus far.. and very pleased with its progress so far :) riding on free shares!! yeahhh

Yobama needs 20%.
 

BoyGenius

Cyber Bully Victim
I'm not sure how you get that impression - it seems completely off base to me. You must be basing that on a small sample, or misinterpretting what you hear. I've got them on in the background most of the day, and, on the whole, they certainly aren't conveying the message that everything is fine and it's up up up from here. Quite to the contrary.

I'm sure you could find segments where some people seem overly bullish, but taken in the aggregate, that is not the message that has been coming out of them in the last week. I haven't heard more than 2 people describe this rally as anything more than a bear market rally - and that is the optimistic interpretation of the situation.

And I've heard no one tout the propriety of investing for the near term - those who are encouraging money back into the market, are clear that it is only safe if you have a long time horizon. It is clear that there are only two kinds of money that are are appropriate in the market right now - short term trading money, that can accept major loses, and very long term investment money. Very few people are pretending to know that the market will be up in 6 months or 3 years.

You need to get them out of your background and into your foreground. Good ole Maria B. was still bragging about our rally today as we passed the 2% drop mark, and just before we entered negative territory and stayed there.

These people are nothing but shills for the folks on the trading floor.

:killingme
 

BoyGenius

Cyber Bully Victim
Is the rally dead?

Despite the rally, today's S&P volume was the lowest since 19 February, 2009.

^GSPC: Historical Prices for S&P 500 INDEX,RTH - Yahoo! Finance

And CNBC's Art Cashin, one of their few commentator's I do respect did have this to say just last week:

Art Cashin, director of floor operations for UBS Financial Services said that "in the old trader`s handbook says that bear market rallies are short, violent, shart and die on low volume."

"Readers have to watch the volume. When volume dries up, the market will roll over."

"We are going to have some kind of a retest on the lows. Yesterday`s rally was 70% short covering."

Oil Traders Blog: Arthur Cashin: Bear Market Rallies are Short, Violent, Sharp

:coffee:
 
Despite the rally, today's S&P volume was the lowest since 19 February, 2009.

^GSPC: Historical Prices for S&P 500 INDEX,RTH - Yahoo! Finance

And CNBC's Art Cashin, one of their few commentator's I do respect did have this to say just last week:



Oil Traders Blog: Arthur Cashin: Bear Market Rallies are Short, Violent, Sharp

:coffee:

Frankly, I'm surprised that the rally has held on this long - I think most market players are. It can only run so far, so fast, but there is money to be made while it is running (thank you SIRI :yahoo:).

And Art Cashin is very good, but he's saying the same things that most other people are saying. Almost everyone knows this is a bear market rally, almost everyone thinks that we will likely have to retest the lows. Steve Grasso was saying yesterday that 99% of the people he speaks with think we have to retest the lows. Traders know what these movements look like, and recognize what their ends look like - the art is being able to anticipate them ahead of time.

And I tend to agree about the low volume - but there is a contrarion, bullish argument to be made for low volume at this point.
 

CrashTest

Well-Known Member
glad i bought it at jus under $1.15

got rid of half today at 2.40s, hope to flip some more before the earnings on april 17th

seems positive for the short run thus far.. and very pleased with its progress so far :) riding on free shares!! yeahhh

Should have waited another day or so to sell. Well over $3.00 today.
 

hokie11

New Member
Should have waited another day or so to sell. Well over $3.00 today.

haha, ive been glued to my screen all day.. sold some more at 3.25 and bought back at 2.90

playing with pure profits basically, so pretty relaxed and hoping the ride continues.

AIG would have been a nice flip from .40 to 1.30, but that i didnt feel like risking even a few hundred bucks on
 

TWL

Kernel panic: Aiee.......
Frankly, I'm surprised that the rally has held on this long - I think most market players are. It can only run so far, so fast, but there is money to be made while it is running (thank you SIRI :yahoo:).
Hell yea! Between SIRI, UYG, PMI and DXO, I've made a nice return. Should have held onto some cash to get some CHTR yesterday--too bad they go BK in a few weeks.
 
Hell yea! Between SIRI, UYG, PMI and DXO, I've made a nice return. Should have held onto some cash to get some CHTR yesterday--too bad they go BK in a few weeks.

SIRI just almost gave me a heart attack - but it's all good now. :lol:

Luckily I was paying attention and could capitalize on the situation. If you're wondering what I'm talking about - take a look at a minute chart for it.
 

hokie11

New Member
Don't know what this means but it sounds important. :patriot:

Citigroup may do reverse stock split | Reuters

means i get less shares at a higher price, same value

100 shares @ $1. becomes 10 @ $10 (or another ratio, depending on declared split)

some see it as good, some see it as bad

good: mutual funds and other big investors dont like to buy stocks at less than $5

bad: small investors like penny flippers cant buy as many shares

but really, the rally right now is the short-squeeze.. all teh shorts are being told to buy the shares back, so theyre all hurting
 

BoyGenius

Cyber Bully Victim
Don't know what this means but it sounds important. :patriot:

Citigroup may do reverse stock split | Reuters

Take a look at 07 Nov 08 with RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland):

RBS: Historical Prices for Royal Bank of Scotland Group Pl - Yahoo! Finance

They pulled a similar move. They went from $1 to a 20:1 reverse split to $20 per share. It's now trading at $6.

This split is great for Citi, but a screw job for you all. Under TARP C can only pay a quarterly dividend of .01 cent for years to come. If you bought at $1, that's a 4% annual yield. Not bad actually. A one cent dividend at $10 a share is a screw job.

:coffee:
 

hokie11

New Member
Take a look at 07 Nov 08 with RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland):

RBS: Historical Prices for Royal Bank of Scotland Group Pl - Yahoo! Finance

They pulled a similar move. They went from $1 to a 20:1 reverse split to $20 per share. It's now trading at $6.

This split is great for Citi, but a screw job for you all. Under TARP C can only pay a quarterly dividend of .01 cent for years to come. If you bought at $1, that's a 4% annual yield. Not bad actually. A one cent dividend at $10 a share is a screw job.

:coffee:

yeah, if i was in it for the long long run, i woulda kept all my shares.. got rid of most between 3 and 3.4.. too bad i missed 3.7+ but very very happy with ~150% profits :)
 

BoyGenius

Cyber Bully Victim
yeah, if i was in it for the long long run, i woulda kept all my shares.. got rid of most between 3 and 3.4.. too bad i missed 3.7+ but very very happy with ~150% profits :)

Good for you. Sounds like you did the right thing. C is nothing but a trade, it's no long term investment in this market.
 
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