Why now?
Putin has offered a variety of excuses for his action. He says that he has been welcomed into Ukraine by separatists in Eastern Ukraine – but he is invading Kiev itself. He says that Ukraine wants its own nuclear weapons – a wild accusation given that Ukraine gave up its 5,000 nuclear weapons in 1994 at the behest of both Russia and the United States. He says that America does “not need a big and independent country like Russia around. This is the answer to all questions.”
The real reason Putin is moving now is threefold.
First, Russia has a major advantage right now: natural gas and oil. Europe has spent the last decade destroying its own energy capacity at the behest of Greta Thunberg and company. Simultaneously, they have shipped in enormous amounts of Russian carbon-based fossil fuel. One-third of all EU natural gas is provided by Russia at this point – and the
price of natural gas, which was low in the 2015-2020 period, has now skyrocketed, giving him tremendous bargaining power. Indeed, Deputy Chair of the Security Council for Russia Dmitry Medvedev
tweeted, “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!” There is a reason that the West has thus far exempted Russian energy markets from sanctions – according to the State Department, it would do too much economic damage.
Second, the West has demonstrated utter incapacity to challenge Putin’s prior predations. He invaded Georgia in 2008, to no serious consequences. He invaded Crimea and Luhansk and Donetsk in 2014, to no serious consequences. Even while the United States complains about Putin’s Ukrainian adventure, special climate envoy John Kerry maintains that we
must work with Russia on climate change: “I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do with the climate.” Even as President Biden condemns Putin, the United States continues to broker with the Russian government to come to a conclusion on an ill-advised nuclear deal with the Iranian mullahs. Putin has no reason to think that any consequences will be either long-lasting or significant. And on a broader level, Putin has watched as the West surrenders to aggressive dictatorial powers repeatedly, from Hong Kong (2020) to Afghanistan (2021).
Third, Putin envisions a reimagined world order. He clearly lusts for a return to Russian glory, and he sees that China has oriented itself under Xi Jinping toward a similar purpose. Both Russia and China see themselves as enemies of the United States, and are acting accordingly. Putin believes that if he takes Ukraine and Xi takes Taiwan, the West will be put back on its heels – the unipolar era of American power will be effectively ended, and a multipolar world in which Russia plays its historic role will re-emerge.
