What Should He Have Done?

[GURPS]

A "delaying action" is one where units are committed in enough quantity and with enough capability to "trade space for time."

That is what is happening here ..... closing places of gathering delaying some 70% of the population getting sick

we do not have enough Hospital beds or resperators for all that are going to get seriously ill

 

[GURPS]

When I served on the East German border (all those years ago; H/T: George H.) our squadron was tasked to hold on the border against attacking Warsaw Pact forces for two days while the Main Battle forces arrayed to our rear. But as we wargamed it we realized that if the WP launched against us with forces at the high side of what we thought they were capable of launching our delay might have been over in less than a half an hour.

Same thing in Korea ..... I was NORTH of the River 1 klick from the DMZ, we were not stopping crap and probably with have died in our beds or running to our Humvees in the 1st salvos of the opening artillery barrage - we also expected Chemical Weapons

 

[Yooper]

(a) That is what is happening here ..... closing places of gathering delaying some 70% of the population getting sick

(b) we do not have enough Hospital beds or resperators for all that are going to get seriously ill

(b) I would call this a planning assumption rather than a fact (at this point).

Also, if we're basing our estimates on Italy, then we should probably stop doing so. What's going on in Italy has exposed every systematic problem Italy has with medicine (and just about everything else, for that matter). And oh, btw, if anything good comes out of this horrible Italian malpractice it's a realization on our electorate's part that government-run medicine doesn't work. Or, at least, works really sub-optimally. This new "directive," to triage those over 80, is both understandable (given Italian inadequacy) and a criminal failure of the government's compact with its citizens.

(a) I would say this is probably true (the 70% guess, that is). But the "flattening the curve" delaying tactic also requires good answers to tough questions. For example, are we willing to crater the national (and perhaps, the global) economy if only 1,000 people die? Doesn't seem like a good trade-off to anyone except the 1,000 and their families. Except we don't know if that's a good estimate. What if it's more? If so, what is the acceptable upper limit? But what if we don't "flatten" and a million die? So better safe than sorry, right? But that puts us right back into the loop about the long-term economic costs.

So what are the risk limits and what are the planning assumptions? And do people have a say in what's being done (or not done) for them/to them? My reading of what I'm seeing is that this is where all of the conflict over COVID-19 is taking place: the min/max of risk limits, who decides the risk limits, who are the folks the risk limits are applied upon, and what say to these people have.

So here's my prediction: absolutely NO ONE will be satisfied wrt how this pandemic "crisis" plays out. Not one person. No one. Nada. Nil. Zilch.

As I close, one more comment about "delaying actions": they play havoc on the attacker, as well. Because perceptions matter. An attacker may falter because it thinks it's dealing with a far more capable/numerous defense. Conversely, an attacker may grow over-confident thinking the force delaying is protecting a main body in full retreat (thus risking a humiliating set-back/defeat if counter-attacked).

It's why generalship ain't a science but an art.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[Hijinx]

What a freaking mess.
Boy : it sure is making a mess of the economy, and a lot of people who work hard are catching hell with the closings of the bars and restaurants, and the schools and caterers . People are hoarding, but is it hoarding when you are expected to stay at home for How long.?
Some---including myself feel that the Chinese were working on this stuff as a bio-weapon and it got loose from them.
But did it get loose or did they release it.?

 

[herb749]

What a freaking mess.
Boy : it sure is making a mess of the economy, and a lot of people who work hard are catching hell with the closings of the bars and restaurants, and the schools and caterers . People are hoarding, but is it hoarding when you are expected to stay at home for How long.?
Some---including myself feel that the Chinese were working on this stuff as a bio-weapon and it got loose from them.
But did it get loose or did they release it.?

China, where all this started, has somehow been left out of the loop on all this.

 

[GURPS]

So here's my prediction: absolutely NO ONE will be satisfied wrt how this pandemic "crisis" plays out. Not one person. No one. Nada. Nil. Zilch.

I agree, but this statement is like saying water is wet ... duh EVERYONE is going to be Monday Morning Quaterback'ng This EVENT

Hind Sight is 20/20 ..... oh Trump Should have Done This, That Or The Other

Because perceptions matter. An attacker may falter because it thinks it's dealing with a far more capable/numerous defense.

Confederate Attack on DC .... where Lincoln went to watch at Fort Stevens

look outs saw a huge column of dust coming down Ga Ave .....
The UNION Army grabbed anyone and everyone that could hold a rifle and put them on the line - cooks, bakers, admin staff ... and beat off what was really a light Calvary Force ... the leader of which thought he was facing a superior force, ended up leaving .... had he known the make up if the defenders he might well have push the defenses and Captured not only the President but raised hell in DC

 

[Hijinx]

Used to be a saying about IF.

It went if your Aunt had a dick she would be your Uncle.
Unfortunately today your Uncle may have a dick and still think he is your Aunt.

 

[Stjohns3269]

(b) I would call this a planning assumption rather than a fact (at this point).

Also, if we're basing our estimates on Italy, then we should probably stop doing so. What's going on in Italy has exposed every systematic problem Italy has with medicine (and just about everything else, for that matter). And oh, btw, if anything good comes out of this horrible Italian malpractice it's a realization on our electorate's part that government-run medicine doesn't work. Or, at least, works really sub-optimally. This new "directive," to triage those over 80, is both understandable (given Italian inadequacy) and a criminal failure of the government's compact with its citizens.

(a) I would say this is probably true (the 70% guess, that is). But the "flattening the curve" delaying tactic also requires good answers to tough questions. For example, are we willing to crater the national (and perhaps, the global) economy if only 1,000 people die? Doesn't seem like a good trade-off to anyone except the 1,000 and their families. Except we don't know if that's a good estimate. What if it's more? If so, what is the acceptable upper limit? But what if we don't "flatten" and a million die? So better safe than sorry, right? But that puts us right back into the loop about the long-term economic costs.

So what are the risk limits and what are the planning assumptions? And do people have a say in what's being done (or not done) for them/to them? My reading of what I'm seeing is that this is where all of the conflict over COVID-19 is taking place: the min/max of risk limits, who decides the risk limits, who are the folks the risk limits are applied upon, and what say to these people have.

So here's my prediction: absolutely NO ONE will be satisfied wrt how this pandemic "crisis" plays out. Not one person. No one. Nada. Nil. Zilch.

As I close, one more comment about "delaying actions": they play havoc on the attacker, as well. Because perceptions matter. An attacker may falter because it thinks it's dealing with a far more capable/numerous defense. Conversely, an attacker may grow over-confident thinking the force delaying is protecting a main body in full retreat (thus risking a humiliating set-back/defeat if counter-attacked).

It's why generalship ain't a science but an art.

--- End of line (MCP)

The North of Italy is one of the richest parts of Europe which top notch health facilities.
Our health system is much less developed ao much so that in the last week many European countries have urged their residents abroad to return home.

we don’t have enough tests, hospital beds or ventilators for even 1 % of the population of the country who might need them.

 

[GURPS]

we don’t have enough tests, hospital beds or ventilators for even 1 % of the population of the country who might need them.

no country does What is YOUR Point Sapidus

 

[Kyle]

no country does What is YOUR Point Sapidus

He doesn't have one other than... "But Trump! ORANGEMANBAD!!! "

 

[Kyle]

 

[Yooper]

So, back to the subject that is the "fog of war":

The Importance of Accurate Testing [Updated]

The D.C. neurosurgeon whom I quoted here and whose mortality chart I reproduced here writes to comment on the need for, and difficulty of obtaining, accurate COVID-19 testing. Please note, especially, his conclusion: The accuracy of testing for COVID-19 needs to be discussed, as all the numbers...

www.powerlineblog.com

The accuracy of testing for COVID-19 needs to be discussed, as all the numbers we are following (and the massive reaction to it) hinge on the tests’ accuracy. As of now, global testing for COVID is based on a tribal group of genetic tests, that differ by country, region, and laboratory. The CDC test, for example, tests a different set of genes, than say the German WHO test. These tests were rapidly developed under a lot of pressure, and potentially have error (as we already saw with the CDC test).

A bit further down:

We know very little about the false positive and false negative rates of these varied tests. Similar PCR (gene) tests for common respiratory viruses have a 1-2% false positive/false negative rate (https://www.biomerieux-diagnostics.com/filmarrayr-respiratory-panel). For COVID, since the numbers being reported (e.g. on Worldometer) are positives, it is very possible that a large fraction of this number could represent false positives, in relatively low prevalence situations. It depends on adequate pre-test screening and limiting the test to high-risk populations (where have we heard this before?!). As we test more, we will find more positives — but only a fraction can be expected to be true, and the true positive rate will decrease as testing expands. As Dr.Birx (White House COVID Coordinator) said on Tuesday, “Quality testing,” she said, is “paramount.” “It doesn’t help to put out a test where 50 percent are false positives.” This is a very crucial point — with significant political implications. The CDC’s methodological and quality concerns are being mistaken for a “botching,” rather than a quality concern and a very basic epidemiological principle.

emphasis in original

I mentioned in another thread that good data is paramount in shaping our response. To me, the absolute basic data point that we need is "accuracy of the tests." So for those who hollered "We need more test kits NOW!," perhaps a bit more caution would have been in order? Because if you need to get it FAST you might not get it GOOD. And it appears that MIGHT be the case with some of the test kits.

A more reasonable question might be the one that asks why we didn't have a better "war stock"? But that's a question with a whole bunch of different variables and origins. Unlike the Wuhan Chinese virus.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[Yooper]

Watching Andrew Cuomo's news conference this Sunday morning on Fox News. Very impressed. Disagree on some points, but overall I think he's doing a nice job (at least, from the bully pulpit). Really liked his scolding of NYC residents who were still gathering and, thus, a real part of the problem.

One of the (other) things he addressed was state finances (i.e., the inability of states to pay for the necessary COVID-19-related expenses). I wonder, after this is passes, if in the AAR the various governments will rethink budgets. One thing seems certain: this coronavirus will kill the "free, free, free" mantra of folks like AOC, Sanders, etc. for a spell. Or will human nature (i.e., political campaigning) immediately go back to pre-crisis stupidity.

My point is that if there was ever a reason to get the budget and budget deficit under control this is it. Unfortunately, while I'm optimistic we'll get through COVID-19 I'm pessimistic that we'll learn fiscal responsibility.

Overall, impressed with Trump, impressed with Cuomo, impressed with Hogan, less impressed with Newsom. But utterly unimpressed with DeBlasio.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[GURPS]

One thing seems certain: this coronavirus will kill the "free, free, free" mantra of folks like AOC, Sanders, etc. for a spell. Or will human nature (i.e., political campaigning) immediately go back to pre-crisis stupidity.

One thing you are not hearing is

complaints about closed borders, asylum seekers being turned away .. health care for illegal immigrants / asylum seekers

 

[Yooper]

For the national/Federal AAR:

Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News: Federal stockpile of N95 masks was depleted under Obama and never restocked - Washington Examiner

The national shortage of N95 respirator masks can be traced back to 2009 after the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, when the Obama administration was advised to replenish a national stockpile but did not, according to reports from Bloomberg News and the Los Angeles Times. The Trump administration is...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

In 2009, the H1N1 outbreak hit the United States, leading to 274,304 hospitalizations, 12,469 deaths, and a depletion of N95 respirator masks.

A federally backed task force and a safety equipment organization both recommended to the Obama administration that the stockpile be replenished of the 100 million masks used after the H1N1 outbreak, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Charles Johnson, president of the International Safety Equipment Association, said that advice was never heeded.

“Our association is unaware of any major effort to restore the stockpile to cover that drawdown,” he said.

HHS Secretary Alex Azar reported last month that only 12 million N95 masks were available in the stockpile, “a tiny fraction of the 3.5 billion masks one of Azar’s deputies later testified the nation’s healthcare system would need,” the Los Angeles Times noted.

Bloomberg News reported similar findings last week, noting, "after the H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009, which triggered a nationwide shortage of masks and caused a 2- to 3-year backlog orders for the N95 variety, the stockpile distributed about three-quarters of its inventory and didn’t build back the supply.”

The first question that needs to be asked is, "Why?"

The second question that needs to be asked is, "Who made these decisions?"

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[GURPS]

The first question that needs to be asked is, "Why?"

Obama was too busy Running Guns and Spying on Reporters

 

[Yooper]

Obama was too busy Running Guns and Spying on Reporters

Maybe. But I'm not willing to go specifically there (yet). Certainly, mundane spending on items like N95 supplies might have had a far lower priority than other items "necessary" to get the country going again following the 2008 crash.

So I'm willing to give the Obama administration an initial pass.

My sense is that the reason, once we got past the initial housing bubble crisis, was that group think and fame took over. In other words, no time for the boring (why I used the word "mundane").

Politicians/generals/etc. are always thinking about how their bust will look and who will sculpt it. As such, they "know" that they won't go down in the history books for N95 respirators or hospital ships or whatever. They will go down in history books because they came up with shiny pebbles like DD-1000, LCS, various Army vehicle programs that sounded great (but weren't), or other politically flashy projects. In the end, they get the "glory" while we get the shaft.

As in this (Salamander got it right again):

Hospital Ships: Build, Buy, or Convert to Them Now

Here and on Midrats we have been calling for new and more hospital ships for over a decade. In a crisis, needs and utility come in to clear...

cdrsalamander.blogspot.com

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[Yooper]

Tucker's on now and hitting the nail exactly on the head: epidemiologists are fantastic in what they do, but they have a limited portfolio and limited responsibilities. As others have noted, when you're a carpenter everything looks like wood. So whatever the medical folks are saying has to be balanced against other...

yup,

you guessed it...

Equities.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[GURPS]

Maybe. But I'm not willing to go specifically there (yet).

I was taking the piss ...... I really don't care, every administration's priorities are different



a mother ****er can starve ... bitches I need bombers to attack Gandhi
I don't care if you riot I'm sending in the troops

- Civilization Reference

 

[Yooper]

Watching Andrew Cuomo's news conference this Sunday morning on Fox News. Very impressed.

Well, while Cuomo should advocate for his state his attack during this morning's press conference on HHS supposedly not releasing 20k ventilators is more than disingenuous.

Why is it only the Federal government that can buy and stockpile ventilators? Perhaps if New York changed their budget priorities maybe there would have been money to safeguard his state?

Yup, Cuomo's NYC roots are showing:

Cuomo's also being disingenuous about the economy/mortality trade-off. Unlike Trump, Cuomo can afford to be all righteous. Disappointing broadside. I fully expect Trump to respond in kind. Back to politics, I guess, Andrew? Did Nancy get you on the phone, too? Like she did to that cuck, Schumer? Or is someone whispering in his ear that he needs to go all John Fogarty come this summer (like the Dems tried to do with his dad in 1984)?

EDIT: Cuomo just played the Matilda card. Awful. Probably heart-felt, but utterly disingenuous. And the press is soft-balling all the questions to prime his rant. Eff him; he should be acting in a far more measured manner in his comments.

--- End of line (MCP)