Whopping $100.00 Gas Rebate

[Toxick]

...on supply and demand and a bet on what the supply and demand will be in the coming four months.

Lemme clarify my argument instead of just ing and rolling my eyes.


Like it matters.


My point was: If someone is going to do the "read my lips" thing, and point at their mouth while slowly talking like you're trying to make a dullard understand english:

"It's Sup-ply and de-mand, you simple assclown"

And then you heap on a load of crap about oil futures - like a fast-talking lawyer at the end of a radio car commercial - As far as I'm concerned, that pretty much blows away the "it's supply and demand you simple assclown" argument.

Because it's NOT supply and demand.

It's based on what they THINK supply and demand will be down the road.

 

[Larry Gude]

Oh...

: Great idea!
I'll do that. Being that I'm a billionaire with tons of venture capital, and all.

So you've been holding out all this time, eh, speculating before you do good for America, hmm???

 

[Larry Gude]

Well, 9D342E71-DBB8-48C8-A2C4-48824AC880A2...

Lemme clarify my argument instead of just ing and rolling my eyes. Like it matters.

My point was: If someone is going to do the "read my lips" thing, and point at their mouth while slowly talking like you're trying to make a dullard understand english:

"It's Sup-ply and de-mand, you simple assclown"

And then you heap on a load of crap about oil futures - like a fast-talking lawyer at the end of a radio car commercial - As far as I'm concerned, that pretty much blows away the "it's supply and demand you simple assclown" argument.

Because it's NOT supply and demand.

It's based on what they THINK supply and demand will be down the road.

..I think I said that;

on supply and demand and a bet on what the supply and demand will be in the coming four months.

 

[Toxick]

So you've been holding out all this time, eh, speculating before you do good for America, hmm???

If I were a billionaire, I'd probably complain less about the price of gasoline.



And I wouldn't live here.

And I'd have a pony.

 

[Toxick]

..I think I said that;

No.

What you (paraphrasing the author of the linked article) said was: "All together now; supply and demand".

Implying : "Hey dumbass - it's really simple... it's all about supply and demand"

When it's NOT about supply and demand at all.


The way I understand it, it goes like this:


Supply = how much we got
Demand = how much we want to use

and

Futures = SWAG & SPECULATION

 

[Larry Gude]

Yeah...

If I were a billionaire, I'd probably complain less about the price of gasoline.



And I wouldn't live here.

And I'd have a pony.

...you'd be #####ing your face off and cutting the helps pay to cover your increased limo fuel costs. That's what the evil rich do.

As for the pony...well, that'd be nice.

 

[Larry Gude]

I wrote...

No.

What you (paraphrasing the author of the linked article) said was: "All together now; supply and demand".

Implying : "Hey dumbass - it's really simple... it's all about supply and demand"

When it's NOT about supply and demand at all.


The way I understand it, it goes like this:


Supply = how much we got
Demand = how much we want to use

and

Futures = SWAG & SPECULATION

...that they are betting on what is happening today and what they THINK will happen tomorrow. Tell me what you disagree with about Krauthammers piece?

I do not imply and I do not think Chuck implies ANYONE, save politicians, is stupid about this. I think he is, and I know I am, merely trying to say louder it IS pretty simple, that it's not in need of some investigation into non existent nefarious secret reasons and conspiracies.

 

[Toxick]

...that they are betting on what is happening today and what they THINK will happen tomorrow. Tell me what you disagree with about Krauthammers piece?

I disagree that the price of gasoline is about Supply and Demand.



Apparently you and Krauthammer also don't believe that its about supply and demand, yet both of you are saying that you do.



S&D Futures is NOT S&D.

Its FUTURES.




It's like telling a cop that I REALLY WAS driving at 55 MPH ... because I was planning on slowing down in a few minutes.

 

[Larry Gude]

Well...

...if not supply and demand, what is it?

 

[Toxick]

...if not supply and demand, what is it?

Futures.

 

[Larry Gude]

Ok...

Futures.

...weren't there futures a month ago?

A year ago?


Two years ago?

5?

 

[Toxick]

...weren't there futures a month ago?

A year ago?


Two years ago?

5?

Yes.
Point?

 

[Larry Gude]

Are futures also...

Yes.
Point?

...responsible for lower gas prices?

 

[Toxick]

...responsible for lower gas prices?

I reckon so.

None of that has anything to do with my point however.



At this moment, in this discussion, I am not complaining about the price of gas.

I am not saying, " Yay, futures were good to me before! But Boo, they're being bad to me now!"


I'm inquiring about the methodology by which the price is determined. The article you link to, and then endorse, authoritatively asserts that "The price of gas is driven by Supply and Demand dammit! Plain and Simple."

It is written in a tone that suggests that this fact should be self-evident even to the most casual observer.

Then it goes on to explain how Supply and Demand creates the price I look at when I drive by BP & Exxon every morning. And it explains this by telling you and I that the price of gas is not created by actual Supply and Demand, but rather speculation about what the future holds for Supply and Demand.



Perhaps you think I'm nitpicking, or splitting hairs, but I rather think that the difference between supply and demand and futures is pretty significant.

Am I wrong to believe that:

Supply = how much is on hand
Demand = how much we want to use

Futures = predictions about the future (which may or may not be accurate)


That's not even apples and oranges. More like apples and barrels of oil.

 

[Larry Gude]

I take the article...

...more as an overview than a "why can't you all see the obvious?' type thing.

Take a gas station. He has 20,000 gallons in the ground that he got, what a week ago or so for let's say $1.75 a gallon. He's taking cash and credit cards for it, selling at about $2.50 or so.

Now, it's not even time to order again and it's jumped to $2.00 wholesale. He is making his profit on the other load BUT he needs to allow for the actual or even probable cost when he gets another load in a few days.

His operating costs need to be coming out of what he's taking in day to day so, he's gotta allow for the new pricing as soon as possible which is why the price moves daily.

Just because we don't think a 2-3% disruption in oil coming out of the ground means a hill of beans, it's still gonna cost the guy at the station a few more pennies or dimes or quarters by the time he gets it.

Stability is the issue here. Bread doesn't move. Nor milk nor electricity but those markets are MUCH more stable and predictable. Cows are cows. Wheat harvest is nearly clockwork. Coal is rather predictable and dependable.

Oil ain't because of all the variables. If the US simply says 'we are only paying what we choose to pay' then it goes elsewhere.

Michael Kinsley wrote a piece in the Post today that is typical Kinsley vapidity.

He says X percent of our oil came out of US ground 12 months ago, and it did, for about $45 a brl, and it did. So, that percent of our oil is presumably coming out of US ground now, which it's not, it's a shrinking percentage but it's close enough to make the argument, so, it should still be at the same price because global events do not affect what it costs Exxon or whomever to get it out of the ground here. It's not, it's matching the global (market) price.

He figures the difference is what we're being ripped off because that specific oil didn't actually cost any more.

Now, in a vacuum, like Kinsleys head, that's true. But if you or I made Y product, anything, and sell it for $10 and a year later our costs are the same but we find we can get $20 for it because, for whatever reason, that's what people are paying for it elsewhere, well, what are we gonna do?

I'm not trying to insult you with presenting things you already know but, I just don't get what is so hard to understand about all of this.

Supply; what the SELLER has ready to sell you.

Demand; what we are willing to by.

Speculator: I bet oil is going to be a bit tighter in a month or two because of this and this and this. If I buy 42,000 gallons today at $1.75 I bet it will be worth $2.00 in 60 days when delivery time, the contract terms, come up and I'll make $.25 a gallon on that bet.

All along the supply chain, events happen; maybe nothing, maybe something volitile. In 60 days, if Exxon is shipping your contract to a buyer for more, you're good. Less, you're not good. Speculating on oil doesn't just work because people are manipulating it or MAKING it happen. People need oil. They are gonna buy it but they are gonna get it as cheap as they can. If no one wants your $2 oil because they can get it cheaper, you lose.

 

[dck4shrt]

I reckon so.

None of that has anything to do with my point however.



At this moment, in this discussion, I am not complaining about the price of gas.

I am not saying, " Yay, futures were good to me before! But Boo, they're being bad to me now!"


I'm inquiring about the methodology by which the price is determined. The article you link to, and then endorse, authoritatively asserts that "The price of gas is driven by Supply and Demand dammit! Plain and Simple."

It is written in a tone that suggests that this fact should be self-evident even to the most casual observer.

Then it goes on to explain how Supply and Demand creates the price I look at when I drive by BP & Exxon every morning. And it explains this by telling you and I that the price of gas is not created by actual Supply and Demand, but rather speculation about what the future holds for Supply and Demand.



Perhaps you think I'm nitpicking, or splitting hairs, but I rather think that the difference between supply and demand and futures is pretty significant.

Am I wrong to believe that:

Supply = how much is on hand
Demand = how much we want to use

Futures = predictions about the future (which may or may not be accurate)


That's not even apples and oranges. More like apples and barrels of oil.

The price you pay for nearly everything you buy (or at least its component parts) are based on futures contracts. Everything from orange juice, to oil, to steel, to aluminum, to pork bellies. It works to mediate and smooth over supply and demand disruptions/spikes/unforseen circumstances.

 

[czygvtwkr]

I'm thinking more and more along the lines of having irresponsible sex, popping out about 8 kids and then just getting on welfare.

Let me PM my number to you

 

[czygvtwkr]

If anyone does not believe the margins of oil companies is only around 10% go and buy some stock, listen in on the quartly conference calls (anyone can). Oil is actually one of the lowest margin sectors in the stock market.

Microsofts margins are about 30%, Pfizer 40%, etc etc.

Want to allieve some of your gasoline burdon buy some stock in an oil company, its not like its a private club anyone can do it. You get some nice dividends that are only taxed at 15%.