Last week, the phrase âDemocrats panicâ surged into corporate media headlines, despite the polling showing Harris up a couple points at that time. But yesterday, Democrat panic reached even higher levels of awkwardness when the New York Times published liberal stalwart Ezra Kleinâs latest op-ed with this astonishing title:
Ignore the polls? One detects a marked lack of confidence on the Democrat side. But why? Whatâs really going on? The answer might be found in less partisan foreign headlines, like yesterdayâs from Al Jazeera:
If the polls show your candidate losing, then the polls donât mean anything. Democratsâ current problem seems to be a Harris slide.
Last week, the polls âwhatever theyâre worthâ showed Harris up by several points. But those small leads have flatlined and are now non-detectable. The problem is the trend. It keeps going the wrong way. Thatâs why previously poll-happy pundits like Klein are getting ahead of Harrisâs inglorious slipping, and are warning Democrat readers to ignore the polls.
But of course, ignoring is not a strategy.
Just this morning, USA Today ran a related story headlined, âDonald Trump takes betting lead over Kamala Harris for first time since debate.â Iâve reported before on Trumpâs lead on the betting site Polymarket, but USA Today aggregates several such sites, and finds Trump now ahead everywhere.
The implied odds reflected in that Bet 365 chart above favor Trump (58%) by ten points over Kamala (47.6%). Note those are odds of winning, not the proportion of voters. Itâs easy to get confused. The betting sites work differently than polls.
That said, I prefer the clarity and cleanness of the betting sites over the murky black box of the polls. Betting sites donât make statistical âadjustments,â and everyoneâs incentives are fully disclosed. This week will answer the biggest question, the question that is on everyoneâs mind, the question that is panicking Democrats like Ezra Klein: is the Kamala slide a continuing trend, or a reversible blip?
My bet is on the trend. Weâre halfway through the month; they badly need another October surprise.
âď¸ STRATEGIC IGNORING â Monday, October 14, 2024 â C&C NEWS đŚ
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