Chopticon64
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No update Gurps? What kind of news service are you. Even Trump backer Nate Silver had to switch his predictions this week
Election 2024 - Kamala - Polling
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No update Gurps? What kind of news service are you. Even Trump backer Nate Silver had to switch his predictions this week
Here's the Part of the NYT's Poll That Shocked This CNN Host
CNN’s Jim Acosta couldn’t let this crosstab slide, and it’s not good for Kamala Harris. The vice president has seen a slew of somewhat better polls, which has flipped Nate Silver’s chances for her in clinching 270 electoral votes. Yet, we’ve seen this before, and these slight leads, none large enough to counter the underestimated Trump vote, quickly evaporate as voters realize this lady isn’t playing with a full deck.
With the media’s trust in the toilet, I think voters are researching for themselves. You had a random black voter in Wisconsin who knew that Donald Trump was the first to push the ‘no tax on tips’ policy, which is a policy that Kamala stole to buoy her chances in Nevada. It could also explain how the vice president has seen a massive drop in support among Hispanic voters—11 points since August. It’s something that seems to have left Mr. Acosta aghast:
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Politico Admits Presidential Debate Failed to ‘Boost’ Kamala Harris
Politico’s analysis runs counter to the establishment media claims Harris received a significant increase in support following the debate.
Politico’s Steven Shepard reported:
As Breitbart News reported, five post-debate polls from last week indicated the debate benefited Trump:
- Siena/New York Times: Trump and Harris are tied nationally
- Emerson: Trump leads Harris in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona
- Washington Post: Trump is tied with Harris in Pennsylvania via a head-to-head matchup
- Cygnal/Carolina Journal: Trump leads Harris by one in North Carolina
- Rasmussen: Trump leads Harris nationally by one point
The polling, all conducted during the second Trump assassination attempt, on September 15, did not fully account for the impact of the horrific event.
That suggests Trump will see more favorable polling in the coming weeks.
NYT Polls: Donald Trump Leads in Sun Belt States of N.C., GA, Arizona
Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — will decide the presidential election, political experts believe. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, Kamala Harris’s path to obtain 270 electoral votes becomes almost impossible.
But the RCP National Average has Commiela +5 ahead???
Oh... that's right. California.
Oh... that's right. California.
That right there should count as a campaign finance violation.
MSM want's to put their thumb on the scale, pay a penalty of 100% cash for value against the free push they do.
The proceeds to go to a charity named by the opposition.
I told my wife to pay no attention to National polls. Even the RCP poll.
Nate Silver and Allan Lichtman Throw Down in Catfight Over 2024 Election Predictions
Lichtman has a system where he applies true or false questions to 13 questions. if there are six or more false answers, the challenger -- in this case, former President Donald Trump -- would win. But Lichtman has interpreted his keys and he's predicting Kamala Harris will win.
This is how he's interpreted the keys:
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE
- Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
- Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
- Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects [sic] major changes in national policy. TRUE
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
- Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Now, I have a few questions here.
He explained at the beginning of September that he has not answered 12 and 13 yet, because he said he thinks that could flip. But he said even if they flip, that's only five answers that would be false. But the answers to both would seem clearly to be both false at this point, since Biden-Harris had a huge military failure in Afghanistan and no success.
Then on top of that, number 11, Trump is undeniably charismatic. That would be six "true" answers, right there. We could also argue about "sustained social unrest" with radical Gaza protesters or the questions of "significant independent" with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. throwing his support to Trump.
But Silver had a few things to say, when Lichtman seemed to imply that Silver was coming around to agree with his prediction about Harris:
That ticked off Lichtman, who said Silver didn't know "how to apply [his] keys":
Donald Trump opens up big lead in our election model: Are Kamala Harris' best weeks behind her and where are the 27,000 voters who could decide who wins?
- Latest update to our election model shows which voters could decide election
- READ MORE: You can sign up for our daily US politics newsletter here
Kamala Harris may have enjoyed her most successful campaign weeks, according to our J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com election model which shows Donald Trump opening up a 10-point lead.
The model crunches all the latest poll data, as well as decades worth of election results plus economic indicators, to calculate who has the best chance of winning the electoral college in November.
It still shows Harris with the best chance of claiming victory in the popular vote (it gives her 50.8 percent support now and a 65 percent chance of finishing with more votes in November).
But state-by-state numbers all show the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan tilting towards Trump, giving him the overall advantage when it comes to winning the White House.
It gives him a 55.2 percent chance of victory. Harris is on 44.6 percent, with a very small chance of a tie.
The best way to understand what it all means is to imagine running the model multiple times with all the different permutations and combinations for all the different states. When all of those are run, Trump wins on average 55.2 percent of the time.
According to Kamala we have NEVER seen a storm like this before ......
Congress is to blame if FEMA does not have enough money
VP Kamala Harris just called into CNN following a briefing on Hurricane Milton. I asked about dangerous misinformation coming in part from Donald Trump. Harris says it is "unconscionable, frankly, that anyone who would consider themselves a leader would mislead desperate people."
What 'dangerous misinformation' coming from Donald Trump? Or do you mean Trump is simply repeating things FEMA and DHS Secretary Mayorkas have said?
Because we're guessing it's the latter.
The Left wants to have this both ways: being VP matters when it helps Kamala's campaign, and is irrelevant when people point out she hasn't done any of the things she's promising to do if made POTUS.
Congress is to blame if FEMA does not have enough money
VP Kamala Harris just called into CNN following a briefing on Hurricane Milton. I asked about dangerous misinformation coming in part from Donald Trump. Harris says it is "unconscionable, frankly, that anyone who would consider themselves a leader would mislead desperate people."
What 'dangerous misinformation' coming from Donald Trump? Or do you mean Trump is simply repeating things FEMA and DHS Secretary Mayorkas have said?
Because we're guessing it's the latter.
The Left wants to have this both ways: being VP matters when it helps Kamala's campaign, and is irrelevant when people point out she hasn't done any of the things she's promising to do if made POTUS.
