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Is Haynesworth worth $100 million?
By Stephen Oh
Is Albert Haynesworth worth $100 million?
In order to give the AccuScore answer to this question we first focused on the on-field impact Haynesworth had on the Titans in 2008.
Haynesworth has missed a number of games since the 2006 season. While it may be a concern that Haynesworth does get injured frequently and served an extended suspension in the past, his 12 missed games over the past three seasons is very useful to AccuScore in measuring his value.
To properly evaluate any football player you often cannot rely on his individual statistics, making his missed games good opportunities to measure the impact he had on the Titans. Haynesworth can dominate a game stuffing the run while also pressuring the QB. Rather than focus on Haynesworth's individual tackle, sack, and forced fumbles stats I looked at how opposing offenses performed 1) against the rest of the league; 2) against Tennessee when Haynesworth played; and 3) against Tennessee when Haynesworth was out.
MEASURING HAYNESWORTH'S IMPACT
To determine the impact Albert Haynesworth had as an individual player, AccuScore looked at how teams performed against the Titans both with and without Haynesworth in the lineup, as well as against the rest of the NFL.
Opposing Offense
Against Rest of League With Haynesworth Without Haynesworth
Explosive Run Rate 16% 13% 18%
Rush YPG 116 104 121
Completion Pct. 61.3% 59.6% 66.0%
Pass Yards per Att. 6.9 6.4 6.6
Pass TD per Att. 4.2% 2.6% 5.7%
Pass INT per Att. 2.9% 3.8% 2.6%
Sacked 6.3% 7.0% 4.3%
The stats above show Haynesworth had an enormous impact. Explosive runs are defined as runs that go for at least eight yards and indicate the ball carrier got to the second level of defense. The league average is 16 percent, but against the Titans with Haynesworth opposing offenses only did this 13 percent of the time. However, when Haynesworth was out that figure blossomed to 18 percent. With fewer long runs, opposing teams averaged just 104 rushing yards against Tennessee with Haynesworth, which is substantially better than the marks of 116 and 121 opposing teams ran against the rest of the league and against Tennessee without Haynesworth.
Haynesworth's presence also negatively impacts opposing passers. Completion percentages are down a full 6.4 percent when Haynesworth plays versus when he is out. Yards per attempt and TDs per attempt are down when Haynesworth plays. Pass interceptions and the rate that QBs get sacked are up considerably when Haynesworth plays.
Haynesworth is not 100 percent responsible for these statistical differences, because there are a number of different factors which also influence these fluctuations -- presence/absence of other key players, quality of opponents with and without Haynesworth and injuries to opposing offenses among them. However, Haynesworth's impact is readily apparent.
HAYNESWORTH MIGHT MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN WASHINGTON
For the sake of this analysis I am going to assume that Haynesworth's presence is largely responsible for the positive defensive improvement described above. This way we can evaluate whether Haynesworth is worth $100 million by seeing if he plays like one of the two or three best defensive players in the league.
In order to test the impact of a single player, AccuScore re-simulated the 2008 season with 2008 rosters. The 8-8 Redskins live up to these expectations in the "re-simulation," winning 52 percent of their game simulations which translates to an average of 8.4 wins per simulation.
We then added Haynesworth with the expectation that he will live up to his potential and be as good as he possibly can be. Under this rosy scenario for the Redskins, the Haynesworth impact is huge. The average wins increase by 2.2. Keep in mind that the season simulations include both extremely good (13-plus wins) and extremely bad seasons (fewer than six wins). To move the average by over two games is a very large impact.
MAXIMUM IMPACT
To evaluate whether or not Haynesworth is worth his new $100 million contract, AccuScore re-simulated the Redskins' 2008 season with and without their new defensive tackle.
Max. Impact
2008 Redskins 2008 Redskins with Haynesworth Haynesworth Impact
Avg. Win % (Per Game) 52% 66% +14%
Avg. Wins 8.4 10.6 +2.2 Wins
Playoff % 15.5% 48.0% +32.5%
Win NFC EAST 7.3% 30.1% +22.8%
This is why Haynesworth, and no one else, is worth $100 million with $41 million guaranteed. The salary will limit the Redskins' ability to sign other players in the coming years, but this one player's impact appears to justify the cost.