I'm not an epidemiologist (nor do I play one on TV), but everything I've read about SARS-CoV-2 these days and things over the years about epidemics/pandemics (e.g., John Barry's "The Great Influenza," William McNeill's "Plagues and People," Richard Preston's "The Hot Zone," and on and on) COVID-19 is nothing to sneeze at. (Full disclosure: I've had a forever interest in this subject due to the goofy places I've worked in over the years and the TB I contracted in at least one of them (one of the reasons I'm one of the vulnerable folks).)
So while I'm really frustrated about the "lock-down" I think it's the smart thing for us to be doing. For the time being. Easter might be too soon, but again, maybe not. We'll see.
True, we're never going to get 100% viral suppression because 100% of the people will not agree to self-quarantine/cannot be self-quarantined due to jobs (etc.) so the reservoir swamp will never be drained. But no one really expected to be able to do that. Instead, the time-honored technique is to buy time by "flattening of the curve" (by isolating measures). It may sound trite now due to overuse, but it is working. I think we need to just grin and bear it at this point. For the time being. Mainly because this virus is not seasonal influenza (if only due to its still-debated R0; the "exponential" growth seems quite a bit higher than seasonal influenza).
One of the other things I'm reading as to why this virus is more than a bit concerning is that research seems to be showing that folks don't completely dump their viral load for up to eight days following remission of symptoms. That's longer (double, I believe) than the viral load shedding time for the influenza virus. This may tie back into the "exponential" transmission rate....
Yet another reason I'm concerned is the lung damage caused by the virus (mentioned in this thread several times). Essentially a really bad pneumonia,* the damage caused in folks who recover (of all ages) is potentially a healthcare crisis down the road (one that doesn't normally occur with influenza). So not only do we have concerns in the Now on both the economic and medical fronts, we potentially have the same concerns in the Future.
Yup, I'm frustrated. By the virus, by China. By the BS pork in the recovery bill. By a whole slew of things. Despite my frustration I'm willing to bite the bullet for the time being.
Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about. As such, always willing to listen and learn.
Wishing all as best a day as possible given the circumstances.
Cheers!
* I've had pneumonia several times over the years. But I've been informed that the pneumonia I had doesn't hold a candle to the pneumonia COVID-19 causes (can/may cause, probably better to say). FWIW
--- End of line (MCP)