Hessian
Well-Known Member
AND...back on topic:
About three weeks out and polls not making any key shifts towards the Kackler...
About three weeks out and polls not making any key shifts towards the Kackler...
Polls start to raise some eyebrows...
- Thread starter Hessian
- Start date
I'm waiting until election day. I remember 2020 all too well when I thought there was no way in blazing Hell Biden could win.
Hessian
Well-Known Member
Watch Virginia,...Trump has closed the gap to just about 1%....distinctly tighter than 2020 & 2016,
Not saying it will flip but Dem $$ will have to be spent hard & fast to prevent a flip. Those $$ are needed elsewhere (ie Penn, Michigan, NC, & Wisconsin)
New Hampshire...a bit more distant but it raises an eyebrow. 4% spread.
National Poll had Trump with fractions of 1 % behind Harris...
BUT Trump leads in virtually all Battleground states.
He only needs ONE of the Rust belt along with Arizona/NC
Harris has 400 out-of-towners on the day-to-day budget ground game in PA--they know they are playing catch up.
Not saying it will flip but Dem $$ will have to be spent hard & fast to prevent a flip. Those $$ are needed elsewhere (ie Penn, Michigan, NC, & Wisconsin)
New Hampshire...a bit more distant but it raises an eyebrow. 4% spread.
National Poll had Trump with fractions of 1 % behind Harris...
BUT Trump leads in virtually all Battleground states.
He only needs ONE of the Rust belt along with Arizona/NC
Harris has 400 out-of-towners on the day-to-day budget ground game in PA--they know they are playing catch up.
The face I make when someone I know posts support for Kamala on their FB page:
What are these people seeing??? It can't just be that they hate Trump so much because why punish the whole freaking country, including themselves, just because they have this irrational mental case hatred?? You can't even ask them because they either spout inane fake news talking points - "Oh Trump called military people losers and suckers! He told people to inject bleach!" - or they just sputter and become abusive. I have not heard a single person give a legitimate reason for voting Heels Up. Like Kamala, they can't give an answer without saying Trump's name. Not a single Democrat can say anything positive about Kamala, including Kamala. It's all "Orange man bad!
"
It's insane.
Trump needs to go scorched earth on the media because they created these monsters.
What are these people seeing??? It can't just be that they hate Trump so much because why punish the whole freaking country, including themselves, just because they have this irrational mental case hatred?? You can't even ask them because they either spout inane fake news talking points - "Oh Trump called military people losers and suckers! He told people to inject bleach!" - or they just sputter and become abusive. I have not heard a single person give a legitimate reason for voting Heels Up. Like Kamala, they can't give an answer without saying Trump's name. Not a single Democrat can say anything positive about Kamala, including Kamala. It's all "Orange man bad!
"It's insane.
Trump needs to go scorched earth on the media because they created these monsters.
Hessian
Well-Known Member
Care for some amusing recent History?
CNN polling stats from 2016 & 2020...THEN compare them to the final results (albeit flawed from drop box & mail in ballots)
Pattern? YES....CNN has an error range from 8-10% favoring Democratic candidates.
Care to clarify for 2024?... Look at CNN results ONE WEEK before the election: Where Harris is either tied or leading Trump by 2-4%...simply translate those result to Trump winning from 5-8%
Source you ask? RCP index published today.
Its very possible they have sinister desires for their skewed polls: Stoke the fires of Dem Election deniers into full scale riots that are 'mostly peaceful.' and thus raise their pitiful ratings.
Who here wants to see Madcow weeping again?
www.realclearpolling.com
CNN polling stats from 2016 & 2020...THEN compare them to the final results (albeit flawed from drop box & mail in ballots)
Pattern? YES....CNN has an error range from 8-10% favoring Democratic candidates.
Care to clarify for 2024?... Look at CNN results ONE WEEK before the election: Where Harris is either tied or leading Trump by 2-4%...simply translate those result to Trump winning from 5-8%
Source you ask? RCP index published today.
Its very possible they have sinister desires for their skewed polls: Stoke the fires of Dem Election deniers into full scale riots that are 'mostly peaceful.' and thus raise their pitiful ratings.
Who here wants to see Madcow weeping again?
CNN 2020, 2016 Presidential Race: MI, PA, WI
Hessian
Well-Known Member
Hessian
Well-Known Member
Perhaps I'd like to add a little rain on the fantasy posters' parade who spout nonsense here...
nypost.com
Cue the anguish and leftist rage against non-HS graduates in flyover country who are misogynistic racists...
Trump leading Harris in every swing state: new poll
Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in every swing state by narrow but expanding margins, according to a new poll. The survey of likely American voters from AtlasI…
nypost.com
Cue the anguish and leftist rage against non-HS graduates in flyover country who are misogynistic racists...
Perhaps I'd like to add a little rain on the fantasy posters' parade who spout nonsense here...
Trump leading Harris in every swing state: new poll
Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in every swing state by narrow but expanding margins, according to a new poll. The survey of likely American voters from AtlasI…
Cue the anguish and leftist rage against non-HS graduates in flyover country who are misogynistic racists...
Honestly, I'll believe it when I see it. I have no doubt that Democrats are furiously ginning up fake ballots right this minute and haranguing nursing home invalids, giving out packs of cigarettes to homeless people. There's no reason why they can't have the ballots counted on election night, but a number of Democrat precincts are insisting they'll need weeks to get it done.
Two more days. We need a decisive landslide with no cheat room.
Because I'm not gonna lie - it will make me happy to see Kamala Harris having to certify the election results for Trump.
But again, I'll believe it when I see it.
Hijinx
Well-Known Member
She won't be cackling when she has to do that.Because I'm not gonna lie - it will make me happy to see Kamala Harris having to certify the election results for Trump.
sadly, that’s what it’s coming down to. It has to be so overwhelming because there’s so much chicanery in the Democrat strongholds.
it would be far more preferable to get the damn Democrats out of the election process.
THAT is why the RNC has been talking about and pushing early voting this time around. The amount of turnout for early voting is higher historically for Dems and this year, it is an historic turnout for Republicans - much higher than the Dems. Repubicans typically turn out in higher numbers ON Election Day and the Dems don't. So ... this year the Dems are sweating Election Day turnout and it SHOWS by how worried they're acting. Their internal polls have to be bad.
I saw Marie Harf yesterday on Fox's "Outnumbered" show at Noon. She's normally composed, but annoying, when she defends her side (D) by spouting her talking points. Yesterday she was losing her crap! She was clearly agitated, and her whole body language showed it, and you could tell it in her voice. Same with Jessica Tarlov. She's usually irritating at best, but she's clearly agitated and it shows in her face! She's being matched up on the Fox talk shows with a lot of Rs who are way out of her league. She gets the sourpuss look on her face when they smack her down.
THAT is why the RNC has been talking about and pushing early voting this time around. The amount of turnout for early voting is higher historically for Dems and this year, it is an historic turnout for Republicans - much higher than the Dems. Repubicans typically turn out in higher numbers ON Election Day and the Dems don't. So ... this year the Dems are sweating Election Day turnout and it SHOWS by how worried they're acting. Their internal polls have to be bad.
I saw Marie Harf yesterday on Fox's "Outnumbered" show at Noon. She's normally composed, but annoying, when she defends her side (D) by spouting her talking points. Yesterday she was losing her crap! She was clearly agitated, and her whole body language showed it, and you could tell it in her voice. Same with Jessica Tarlov. She's usually irritating at best, but she's clearly agitated and it shows in her face! She's being matched up on the Fox talk shows with a lot of Rs who are way out of her league. She gets the sourpuss look on her face when they smack her down.
A number of *Democrat* pundits are saying the polls are bullshit and pollsters are putting their thumb on the scale for Kamala. I'm trying not to get too excited about Trump's current standing, I'm more thinking about my plan if the Democrats cheat out a win and how I'm going to protect my retirement.
Their internals are not good, and that's exactly why they're saying they're bullshit. They're already planning to extend this as long as they need to get as many votes as they need. That's why the Trump organization is trying to win it bigly.
StmarysCity79
Well-Known Member
ME ME ME ME ME.
Classic Republican.
How come you still haven't proven any cheating nor has Trump nor Kari lake?
How come none of the Down ballot Republicans who won in 2020 refused to take their posts claiming the same "fraud" that made Trump lose but let them win?
StmarysCity79
Well-Known Member
Honestly this is the only poll that matters so far.
This woman is known as the gold standard.
If Selzer says Iowa is close Trump is screwed nationally
Vice President Kamala Harris holds 47% to former President Donald Trump’s 44% among likely voters in the final Iowa Poll before Election Day from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. That margin falls within the poll’s 3.4 point margin of sampling error and suggests no clear leader in the state, which has widely been rated as solidly in the GOP column during this year’s campaign.
The findings suggest a shift toward Harris compared with the previous Iowa Poll, in September, which found a narrow edge for Trump. In that poll, 47% of likely voters backed Trump to 43% for Harris.
This woman is known as the gold standard.
If Selzer says Iowa is close Trump is screwed nationally
Trump no longer leads in a state he carried twice, according to new Iowa Poll
Vice President Kamala Harris holds 47% to former President Donald Trump’s 44% among likely voters in the final Iowa Poll before Election Day from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. That margin falls within the poll’s 3.4 point margin of sampling error and suggests no clear leader in the state, which has widely been rated as solidly in the GOP column during this year’s campaign.
The findings suggest a shift toward Harris compared with the previous Iowa Poll, in September, which found a narrow edge for Trump. In that poll, 47% of likely voters backed Trump to 43% for Harris.
Nate Silver says not to place too much stock in late polls - or polls the NEVER deviate from past efforts.
Late polling by some firms tend to lie a little, because they don't want to look bad - so they adjust their output based on what they believe the consensus is. Kind of like, one sheep goes over a cliff, they all do. A week out, you can bet most of them are lying.
But there's also the ones that NEVER have outliers in their polling. He said you should TRUST the ones that have them more often, because that's the nature of sampling. When you're always spot on and rarely deviate - you're cooking the numbers. Numbers SHOULD deviate. That's why you have sampling error. It happens. Case in point, the Des Moines Register Iowa poll. There's rarely a state more reliably conservative than Iowa, yet in their OWN SURVEY, it went from Trump up by I think three to Harris up by 10. That's statistically impossible. Just look at the consensus of Iowa polling.
I still have nervous knots about the whole election, just as I did in 2016 - believing HIllary would win anyway, but being - shocked - that Trump won. BUT THEY ARE ALREADY finding shenanigans all over the place - Georgia precincts collecting late ballots - spoiled ballots in Arizona - reams of faked ballots that have been CAUGHT. Dammit I am getting tired of an election system that is SO VERY EASILY duped.
Get your last digs in while you can it's gonna be a long 4 years for you.