Ukraine / Russia - Actions and Reactions

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Give War A Chance



Robert Kagan, neoconservative writer and husband to Deputy Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland, wrote a piece called “The Price of Hegemony” in Foreign Affairs last week that was fascinating. If I’d written his opening, people would denounce me as a Putin-concubine:

Although it is obscene to blame the United States for Putin’s inhumane attack on Ukraine, to insist that the invasion was entirely unprovoked is misleading.
Just as Pearl Harbor was the consequence of U.S. efforts to blunt Japanese expansion on the Asian mainland, and just as the 9/11 attacks were partly a response to the United States’ dominant presence in the Middle East after the first Gulf War, so Russian decisions have been a response to the expanding post–Cold War hegemony of the United States and its allies in Europe.

Kagan went on to make an argument straight out of Dr. Strangelove. Instead of doing what some critics want and focusing on “improving the well-being of Americans,” the U.S. government is instead properly recognizing the responsibility that comes with being a superpower. So, while Russia’s invasion may indeed have been a foreseeable consequence of a decision to expand our hegemonic reach, now that we’re here, there’s only one option left. Total commitment:

It is better for the United States to risk confrontation with belligerent powers when they are in the early stages of ambition and expansion, not after they have already consolidated substantial gains. Russia may possess a fearful nuclear arsenal, but the risk of Moscow using it is not higher now than it would have been in 2008 or 2014, if the West had intervened then. And it has always been extraordinarily small…
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Western Dissent from US/NATO Policy on Ukraine is Small, Yet the Censorship Campaign is Extreme


But what was “unprecedented” just six weeks ago has now become commonplace, even normalized. Any platform devoted to offering inconvenient-to-NATO news or alternative perspectives is guaranteed a very short lifespan. Less than two weeks after the EU's decree, Google announced that it was voluntarily banning all Russian-affiliated media worldwide, meaning Americans and all other non-Europeans were now blocked from viewing those channels on YouTube if they wished to. As so often happens with Big Tech censorship, much of the pressure on Google to more aggressively censor content about the war in Ukraine came from its own workforce: “Workers across Google had been urging YouTube to take additional punitive measures against Russian channels.”

So prolific and fast-moving is this censorship regime that it is virtually impossible to count how many platforms, agencies and individuals have been banished for the crime of expressing views deemed "pro-Russian.” On Tuesday, Twitter, with no explanation as usual, suddenly banned one of the most informative, reliable and careful dissident accounts, named “Russians With Attitude.” Created in late 2020 by two English-speaking Russians, the account exploded in popularity since the start of the war, from roughly 20,000 followers before the invasion to more than 125,000 followers at the time Twitter banned it. An accompanying podcast with the same name also exploded in popularity and, at least as of now, can still be heard on Patreon.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
It is interesting that the USMC decided to ditch their tanks....

I think that has more to do with agility than any inherent flaw with armor. The issue isnt armor, its how the Russians are using it, from what I've read. If you don't employ a total force with air, infantry, and armor, your force gets whacked in detail. Without infantry to scout and locate anti armor teams, they get to shove those Javelins deep. Without SEAD, your close air support cant stay alive to help those infantry against the enemy infantry defending the anti armor teams.

I think the Marine doctrine is that by the time you need armor, that battlefield is an Army problem. They have secured your beachhead, now go do Army crap, Army:)
 

Gilligan

#*! boat!
PREMO Member
I think that has more to do with agility than any inherent flaw with armor.
I assumed that was probably the main driver. Maybe I'll get a chance to ask Dave Berger about that after he retires; we were classmates in HS and teammates on the lacrosse team. ;-)
David Berger.JPG
 

Merlin99

Visualize whirled peas
PREMO Member
If I may ...


Find reports of any county encouraging sending humanitarian aide, or actually sending only humanitarian aide. If found, juxtapose against the number of send weapons weapons weapons reports. Take your time. I'll wait.
I’m talking about your assertion that we’ll allow anyone to go before a Russian tribunal. As far as who’s right and who’s wrong I couldn’t venture a guess. Working from a biased media I’d say Ukraine. Working from a single personal friend ex-SOF operator I’d say Russia, but I don’t know his sources so… Kind of the definition of working in a vacuum.
 

LightRoasted

If I may ...
If I may ...

I’m talking about your assertion that we’ll allow anyone to go before a Russian tribunal. As far as who’s right and who’s wrong I couldn’t venture a guess. Working from a biased media I’d say Ukraine. Working from a single personal friend ex-SOF operator I’d say Russia, but I don’t know his sources so… Kind of the definition of working in a vacuum.
Well it's not like they'll be sending out invitations to get people to attend. Rather, whomever is captured during the war. And the possible making of retribution policy regarding those groups or Nations that interfered.
 

black dog

Free America
It is interesting that the USMC decided to ditch their tanks....

My kid served with a few companys of tankers at Palms, most of the Marines M1 tanks were two or three upgrades behind the Armys M1's.
The Marines are going to more amphibious, especially in the asian, pacific theater is some of the things he was told the last two years.
 
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black dog

Free America
the same situation was observed in Syria ... T-72's alone isolated killed with multiple RPG's or ATGM
Im not sure about being killed with an rpg, one might pop a track link or better yet take out the gun site and make it about worthless. A molten chunk of copper shot through both sides does a good job also. Well the vaccum does a good job.
 

stgislander

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
My kid served with a few companys of tankers at Palms, most of the Marines M1 tanks were two or three upgrades behind the Armys M1's.
The Marines are going to more amphibious, especially in the asian, pacific theater is some of the things he was told the last two years.
Sounds like they are going back to their roots as a naval infantry.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Ukraine is scanning faces of dead Russians, then contacting the mothers


Ukrainian officials have run more than 8,600 facial recognition searches on dead or captured Russian soldiers in the 50 days since Moscow’s invasion began, using the scans to identify bodies and contact hundreds of their families in what may be one of the most gruesome applications of the technology to date.

The country’s IT Army, a volunteer force of hackers and activists that takes its direction from the Ukrainian government, says it has used those identifications to inform the families of the deaths of 582 Russians, including by sending them photos of the abandoned corpses.

[clip]

Clearview AI’s chief executive, Hoan Ton-That, told The Washington Post that more than 340 officials across five Ukrainian government agencies now can use its tool to run facial recognition searches whenever they want, free of charge.

Clearview employees now hold weekly, sometimes daily, training calls over Zoom with new police and military officials looking to gain access. Ton-That recounted several “‘oh, wow’ moments” as the Ukrainians witnessed how much data — including family photos, social media posts and relationship details — they could gather from a single cadaver scan.

Some of them are using Clearview’s mobile app to scan faces while on the battlefield, he said. Others have logged in for training while stationed at a checkpoint or out on patrol, the night sky visible behind their faces.
“They’re so enthusiastic,” Ton-That said. “Their energy is really high. They say they’re going to win, every call.”

The company, Ton-That said, first offered its services last month to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense after he saw Russian propaganda claiming that soldiers captured there were actors or frauds.

The system had primarily been used by police officers and federal investigators in the United States to see whether a photo of a suspect or witness matched any others in their database of 20 billion images taken from social media and the public Internet.

But about 10 percent of the database has come from Russia’s biggest social network, VKontakte, known as VK, making it a potentially useful tool for battlefield scans, Ton-That said.
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member

Ukraine is scanning faces of dead Russians, then contacting the mothers


Ukrainian officials have run more than 8,600 facial recognition searches on dead or captured Russian soldiers in the 50 days since Moscow’s invasion began, using the scans to identify bodies and contact hundreds of their families in what may be one of the most gruesome applications of the technology to date.

The country’s IT Army, a volunteer force of hackers and activists that takes its direction from the Ukrainian government, says it has used those identifications to inform the families of the deaths of 582 Russians, including by sending them photos of the abandoned corpses.
A bit gruesome - but it makes it hard for the Russian government to disguise its battle losses. It's one thing to lie about it, suppress reporting and the various families across Russia never know how many OTHER families got the news.
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
Has the Russian MOD be denying deaths or loses ?
Different Russian sources I have read over the weeks put the toll to under a thousand to just over a thousand, whereas every other source, Ukrainian and otherwise, puts the number staggeringly higher. Ukrainian sources put it over 20,000 with more wounded and a few thousand captured.

Almost as bad, other news sources put somewhere around 1500 Russian bodies completely abandoned, lying where they fell.

This war has gone terrible for Russia - but historically, the most fearsome thing about Russians is their willingness to absorb INCREDIBLE losses to achieve their goals. I think that doesn't work in modern warfare - no more losing tens of millions of civilians to beat the Nazis.

The main forum I frequented for RUSSIAN version of news has been silent for a few weeks now. Most of the primary participants are Russian ex-pats living outside of Russia and their version of events make it look like the rest of the world is peddling pure fiction. They still embrace the idea they are "liberating" Ukraine, that civilians are welcoming them and poor Russia is the victim of Western propaganda and staged and fictionalized narratives - that stories and images that arose from places like Bucha were faked, with Ukrainians lying in the street pretending to be dead, or Russian soldiers stripped of clothing and clothed as Ukrainian civilians (a story that makes it hard to support the lie that there are few Russian casualties).

Moreover - they firmly believe the territory previously taken from Ukraine is 100% Russian soil. They take GREAT umbrage at the audacity of Ukraine to attack areas in the Donbas region.

Honestly, I can't believe how they think - one release I saw described the audacity of Ukrainians launching an attack on Briansk, which is INSIDE RUSSIA - because they "illegally violated Russian airspace". As if a month and a half of leveling Ukrainian cities and launching missiles all across the country was perfectly legitimate.
 
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