Election 2024 - Kamala - Polling
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BOP
Well-Known Member
Their hatred of all things American, of you and me, and Trump is hotter than the burning fires of a thousand burning suns. They would vote for a pet rock at this point.
BOP
Well-Known Member
I've heard any number of lefties calling her "a beautiful black woman." I'm not seeing it. Then again, I'm not seeing it with Mike Obama, or any of the other cows the left touts as "beautiful."
AOC was kind of cute...at first.
Actually, the only woman on the left I'd play slap-and-tickle with is Omar...as long as someone could keep her husband/brother at bay. But that's about it.
I think she reminds me of a sister named Betty I used to date, way back in the day.
Actually, I've dated 2 women named Betty. The other one was a big, ol' gal who went by the handle of Amazon. I'll bet you can guess why.
A New Poll Shows That Kamala’s Honeymoon Is Ending
The race is tighter, but the fundamentals still favor Donald Trump.
"But at the moment we are looking at a race made tighter, rather than transformed to a Harris shoo-in," Johnson continued. "All eyes now should be on the independents. If Harris can make more progress with them, then we could see Trump's advantage disappear."
Despite the poll showing that linking Kamala to radical left-wing policies has been effective, which is a top concern about her in the survey, she outperforms Biden compared to Trump in several key areas, such as respondents viewing her as "strong," "competent," and aligned with voters' priorities, though it's hard to understand why. While Trump still leads on attributes like "gets things done" and "charisma," Harris has strengthened her lead in areas like "caring," "moral," and "stands for me."
For sure, one poll showing Trump up doesn't tell us a whole lot, but if we see more polls showing Trump ahead. Remember, prior to the candidate swap, Kamala was the most unpopular vice president in the history of polling. There's a reason for this, and putting her on top of the ticket doesn't change her fundamental weaknesses.
Trump leads Harris in key battleground states: poll
The latest Trafalgar survey, first obtained by Polling Plus, found Trump ahead in North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, which collectively boast 52 electoral votes.
In North Carolina, Trump led Harris 49% to 45% while the margin in Nevada was 48% to 45%. In Arizona, Trump led 48% to 47% while in Pennsylvania, he led 46% to 44%.
The Trafalgar surveys appear largely in line with other surveys. The RealClearPolitics polling average currently places all four states in Trump's column in its "no toss ups" column.
Trump Leads Kamala Harris
Surveying 1,105 registered voters between August 9-12 with a sampling error of ±3 percentage points, the poll showed Trump ahead of Harris by one-point – 50 percent to 49 percent. She also trailed him by one-point last month – 49 percent to 48 percent. Per Fox News:
On the gender front, men largely favor Trump by 12 points, while women favor Harris by 10. Trump remains strong among white evangelicals, rural voters, and non-college educated white men. Harris polls strongly with women, black voters, college graduates, and the youth vote. Even though Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who served in the national guard, as her running mate, Trump polls stronger with military veterans by 22 points. It remains unclear if the stolen valor accusations over whether or not Walz embellished his service for political gain has had any effect on those polls.
Watch out below! Before the DNC started on Monday morning, wagering site Polymarket bettors favored Kamala Harris (52%) over President Trump (48%), a +4 advantage for the Cackler. But after last night’s joyfully weird DNC ended, and the Coach had been introduced, the betting markets flipped, favoring Trump (53%) over Harris (46%), a +7 advantage, and more importantly, a +11 shift in Trump’s direction.
Polymarket is one of the places where people vote with their own money, which tends to make folks focus a little harder than, say, answering some telemarketing pollster in the middle of dinner.
Looks like the Coach fumbled the snap. It’s hard to say, the officials are still reviewing the tape. But Polymarket’s new numbers may also account for Robert Kennedy’s leaked plan to endorse Trump tomorrow, right after Kamala has been fully and finally nominated.
☕️ COACHED ☙ Thursday, August 22, 2024 ☙ C&C NEWS 🦠
Daily DNC update for non-watchers; betting markets begin shifting; FTC loses in agency powers case; WaPo dishes truth about peace talks; Trump expands platform; CNN slips in Kamala truth bomb; more.
www.coffeeandcovid.com
People are making a big deal about Kamala being a point or two ahead of Trump in the battleground states (cough... cough...Jessica... cough). The problem is that in 2016 and 2020, he was much farther behind in the polls than Hillary and Joe. And he won in 2016.
Trump being one or two points down at this point means he's really ahead.
Trump being one or two points down at this point means he's really ahead.
SamSpade
Well-Known Member
Because sadly, if you say to a pollster you're voting for the Democrat - or to a person on the phone - they don't care.
But say you're voting for Trump, and they won't stop EXPLAINING to you that you're wrong.
So there's this sliver of voters who just won't tell you. I know - I've been on these polls. If you answer "right" they move on to the next question - if you answer "wrong", they quote some facts and then ask if you STILL think that. If you explain, they come at you with MORE "facts" or explanations why your answer isn't the right one. They NEVER challenge the left-wing answer. I know - because I lied a few times to see where they were going.
Polling can be as much about INFLUENCING the race as it is about measuring the race.
Harris squeaks just ahead of Trump nationally in post-DNC 2024 election poll — but that’s not a good sign for Dems
Harris, Trump campaign in key swing states as polls indicate the race is 'neck and neck'
0 seconds of 27 secondsVolume 0%
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slim lead over former President Donald Trump after an expected polling bump following last week’s Democratic National Convention, according to a survey released Thursday.
The Wall Street Journal’s latest national poll showed Harris leading Trump by 1 percentage point.
The Democratic nominee pulled 48% support in a head-to-head matchup compared to the Republican nominee’s 47% backing.
When third-party candidates were included in the survey, Harris’ advantage grew to 2 points, 47% to 45%.
The survey’s findings suggest that Trump, 78, would likely emerge victorious in the Electoral College race, since Democratic candidates typically poll higher than Republican ones in national polls.
The Democratic presidential candidates usually need at least a 3 point lead nationally to signal that they are also ahead in the battleground states that will decide the election.
In 2016, for example, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton topped Trump by 2.1 percentage points in the national popular vote but lost several swing states, handing Trump a decisive Electoral College victory.
The poll marked the first time that Trump has trailed in the presidential race (head to head) since April of last year, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The Left Is Going to Freak Out Over Nate Silver's Latest Election Model
Did you hear that scream? Liberals far and wide are no doubt freaking out right now because the election they thought they had in the bag after the Democratic Party crowned Kamala Harris as its nominee, which sent a jolt of enthusiasm in their party, is now slipping away.
Kamala's honeymoon bounce is now on a downward trajectory, and a slew of battleground state polling is looking really good for Donald Trump. But perhaps even more devastating for the Democrats is that Nate Silver's famous election projection model has Trump ahead for the first time in weeks.
That is a nearly ten-point swing in Trump's favor in the projection model in just a couple of weeks. Even Silver is trying to calm down his leftist readers.
"Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3," he wrote. "There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading (including two new polls today)."
He continued:
“As I’ve explained, the honeymoon will be a manifestation of the wall-to-wall coverage Harris receives from the mainstream media,” Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote in a memo to the campaign last month. “The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term.”
When Jessica started waving Kamala's poll numbers around, Jessie smacked her with Silver's poll.
Is Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the presidential race?
No single public opinion survey offers an adequate basis for assessing the state of an electoral contest. Averages of multiple polls tend to minimize the impact of individual erroneous polls and locate the most probable course of public sentiment.
There are two different ways of constructing averages of multiple polls. One is simple: take all the polls on a race (national or a specific state) and determine the average of the results they report for each candidate. The other is more complicated: use standards of quality based on the prior performance of individual polling organizations as well as the sample size and timing to determine the weight that a specific poll receives. In principle, polls conducted by organizations that have been accurate in the past, use large samples, and have been released recently will receive a greater weight than those that score lower on one or more of these dimensions. A well-known example of the first, simpler method is provided by RealClearPolitics (RCP); of the second, more complex method, by FiveThirtyEight (538).
Here’s what these organizations said about the state of the race on Labor Day.
If Harris’s lead in the Blue Wall states lasts until Election Day, she will garner 270 electoral votes, even if she loses all the other swing states.
Over the past six weeks, just about everything has gone right for the Harris campaign. But because things can change, and often do, in the closing weeks of presidential campaigns, it would be hasty to conclude that Harris is now the clear favorite to win the election in November.
If her momentum continues, Harris will probably win. But it may not. If she stumbles in the September 10 debate, the momentum of the race may change. Trump’s campaign could regain its balance and sharpen its focus. And unforeseen events could shift the dynamic between the candidates.
We should also be cautious about concluding that Harris now enjoys a clear lead over Trump. In recent elections, not just individual polls but also poll averages have turned out to be misleading. Not only have there been large gaps between September surveys and actual results; the same has been true for polls conducted just days before the election. These gaps have not been random; most of them underestimated the share of the vote that Donald Trump eventually received, often by wide margins.
You shouldn't say that in Maryland. The Libtards here need to break their insanity voting records. The amount we pay in Taxes don't add up to "Services Received" from State government.
They're the one's who sit at home looking for the next benefit package.
Chopticon64
Well-Known Member
Yo dumba**, it ain’t a poll. It’s an odds predictor that he is intentionally skewing to boost fundraising dollars for Harris.
Don’t believe me? Dig into the fundraising emails her campaign is sending out referencing his prediction. Her poll numbers are spectacular, even RCP has her far in the lead.
