Election 2024 - Kamala - Polling

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

CNN Gives Kamala Harris BRUTAL Reality Check As Trump SURGES & Campaign Basement Strategy BACKFIRES!​



 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
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GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Post-Debate Poll Explains Harris' Big Problem, Why Trump Is Now Leading in Michigan






It actually moved three points from Harris +2 to Trump +.1 on August 8.

I wanted to take a deeper dive into the backend of the poll.

According to pollster Matt Towery, one reason was a five-point lead with independents.

“The poll also showed a slightly higher amount of support for Trump among African-Americans (around 20%), which may be an aberration, or a reflection of higher African-American numbers seen in recent national surveys such as The New York Times survey,” Towery adds.
That 20% threshold is significant, given Trump campaign surrogates told The Post this summer they hope to get 25% to 30% of the black-male vote. The former president garnered just 12% of the black vote in 2020.

Now that appears to be in line with both other indications of independents being for Trump that we've seen in other measures including an NPR/Marist poll and the Fox focus group that showed how closely independents were tracking with Republicans. But if that and the 20 percent black vote are accurate, Harris could be in big trouble there. I say that with my usual caution about "polls."

Insider Advantage was one of the most accurate polls in 2020 and this poll follows another local poll from the Detroit News that also had Trump up by 1 point the week before.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

NY Times/Siena Poll: Majority of Likely Voters Blame Kamala Harris for Record Illegal Immigration at Southern Border



The poll asked likely voters “How much blame, if any, do you think Kamala Harris as sitting vice president should receive for … problems at the border” — record illegal immigration, in other words — to which 63 percent said they place “a lot of blame” or “some blame” on Harris.

In April of 2021, President Joe Biden asked Harris to lead the administration’s effort in “stemming the movement of so many folks, stemming the migration to our southern border.” As a result, many media outlets and lawmakers began referring to Harris as the “border czar.”

Harris has since tried to distance herself from the issue of illegal immigration.

The poll shows the majority of likely voters are not convinced by Harris’s attempt to distance herself from the border. Only 16 percent of likely voters said Harris bears “no blame at all” for record illegal immigration over the last few years.

Meanwhile, of the majority that do blame Harris, 74 percent are white non-college-educated voters, 51 percent are non-white non-college-educated voters, and 62 percent are white college-educated voters.

Most significantly, perhaps, 63 percent of swing voters said they blame Harris.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Post-Debate Poll: Donald Trump Opens Up Clear Lead Across Battleground States



The polling memo obtained by Breitbart News shows Trump leading Harris by three points, 50%-47%, in a head-to-head ballot.

“A Poll has just been released by Highly Respected Pollster, Tony Fabrizio, showing that I am up THREE POINTS after the Debate,” Trump said in a statement. “These are largely Independent Voters, who are tired of watching our Country go down, and want to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

According to the memo:

Despite the best efforts of Kamala Harris and media to portray the debate as some kind of overwhelming victory for her, voters did not see it this way as support for her remained flat. That only change we saw was a 2-point bump for President Trump in both ballot configurations.

The surveys were conducted across seven target states.

The memo asserts, “Clearly, target state voters were not impressed by Kamala Harris’ empty platitudes and while the media would have people believe she is cruising to victory, this couldn’t be farther from the truth.


Pre-and-Post-Debate-Survey-1.jpg
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Taylor Swift Endorsing Kamala Harris Backfires as Poll Shows More Voters ‘Much More Likely’ to Vote Trump Over Harris


Surveying 1,120 potential voters between September 11-12 with a ± 3.8% margin of error, the YouGov poll showed that a majority of voters (66 percent) said that Swift’s endorsement made no difference while only 8 percent of voters would either be “somewhat” or “much more likely” to vote for Kamala Harris due to Swift’s endorsement. Conversely, a full 20 percent said they are “somewhat” or “much more likely” to vote for former President Donald Trump.

Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president following the first debate last week, though she advised Americans to do their own research. Perhaps, many already have.

“I think the best thing about a football locker room, and kind of how I grew up in baseball locker rooms, is that people can come together and achieve a common goal,” said Mahomes. “I think that if we can do that as a nation, I think we can get the best out of each other. I think that is something I do every single day.”

“When I hang out with other people I don’t think about political views,” he continued. “I think about how they treat people. And I was with a lot of great people this weekend.”

Despite the polling, some good news did yield for Harris as a result of Swift’s endorsement, with reports indicating that she drove over 400,000 people to register on vote.gov.

Per USA Today:

As of Wednesday evening, a custom URL shared by Swift on her Instagram story that expired after 24 hours had directed 405,999 visitors to vote.gov, according to a spokesperson from the General Services Administration (GSA) speaking to USA TODAY on Thursday.
By comparison, in the week leading up to the debate, from Sep 3-9, 2024, vote.gov received about 30,000 visitors a day.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

'Danger Zone': CNN Number Cruncher Harry Enten Throws Cold Water on Kamala HQ in Latest Polling Analysis



The poll also showed that voters were eager for a candidate who could bring about change... and viewed Trump as a change agent over Harris 53 percent to 25 percent, which no doubt was a major blow to the Harris campaign as she's laughably been promoting herself as the change candidate despite being the current Vice President.

And even though the pundit class and some polls declared Harris the "winner" of perhaps the final presidential debate of 2024, on the issues that matter most to the American people - like the economy and illegal immigration - Trump scored high marks with poll respondents and focus group participants, confirming that the impressions taken from voters of that debate were a bit more nuanced than the Usual Suspects let on in their reporting and commentary.

Fortunately, there are those in the polling industry who are willing to cut through all the spin and hype in order to get to the real story of where we are in the race, like CNN number cruncher Harry Enten, who has kept it real throughout the campaign season when Biden was the presumptive Democrat nominee and now with Harris as the actual nominee.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

NAACP Poll Is Brutal for Kamala




The tweet from The Hill sounded ominous: an NAACP poll showed that black voters are more enthused to vote in 2024 than in 2008. However, it only takes about three seconds to know that’s facially untrue. Kamala Harris isn’t Barack Obama. Harris isn’t leading in the battleground polls since we know the Trump vote is underestimated—she’s nowhere near where she needs to be to offset that polling conundrum. Obama had political skills and could efficiently deliver a message; it resonated. Harris is a cackling idiot who never answers the question. Obama was excellent in interviews, while Harris is a trainwreck from East Palestine, Ohio.

One could argue that the framing done by liberal outlets on this poll is insulting to voters, especially nonwhite voters, as it’s an unnecessary ‘what they meant to say’ sort of spin to counter the heinous polling Harris is generating right now. Here's how the Hill framed this poll:









And then, Ryan Girdusky decided to go to the source, and it’s a disaster for Harris:



 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Taylor Swift Endorsement BACKFIRES ON DEMOCRATS, Polls Show Voters LESS LIKELY To Vote Harris​


 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Undecided Black Voters TRASH Kamala Harris AS WEAK After DECLARING They Were BETTER OFF UNDER Trump!​



 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Trump, Harris Running Neck and Neck in Virginia in Worrying Sign for Dems


Each garners 45 percent of the 850 registered voter respondents’ support in a head-to-head matchup. Three percent prefer someone else, and four percent are undecided. Two percent would not vote, and one percent refused to answer.

Harris leads Trump narrowly, 48 percent to 46 percent, among the 756 likely voters sampled. Another six percent are either undecided or would support another candidate.

The race is equally as close in a deeper field. The poll was notably conducted between September 3-9, and independent Robert F Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump, was included on the first day of polling. He was removed from questioning on September 2.

Trump and Harris tied at 44 percent among the registered voter respondents. Two percent went to Kennedy, while neither Green Party’s Jill Stein nor Libertarian Chase Oliver eclipsed one percent. Five percent were undecided.
 
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