Ukraine / Russia - Actions and Reactions

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
🔥 As the drip, drip, drip of the unraveling Proxy War narrative continues, Politico ran a story yesterday headlined, “Ukraine’s top Freedom Caucus ally gets cold feet.”

According to Politico, on Tuesday evening, Representative Andy Harris (R-Md.) told his constituents at a town hall that it’s about time to wind down direct U.S. aid to Ukraine. “Is this more a stalemate? Should we be realistic about it? I think we probably should,” Harris explained at the town hall, held at a public library about 75 miles north of bright-blue Washington, DC.

Politico was especially interested in Republican Harris because the representative is considered a “key” influential member on the House Freedom Caucus, one who has been reliably pro-war, unlike other members. Until now. Harris is also the co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, which has always supported aid for Ukraine. Also until now.

Harris is almost certainly included in classified Congressional Proxy War briefings.

During his town hall, Harris expressed deep pessimism about the Proxy War. Referring to Ukraine’s glorious spring offensive — which was intended to turn the tide of the war — Harris said, “I’ll be blunt, it’s failed.” And he was blunt, too, about the bleak prospects for any victory ahead, saying “I’m not sure it’s winnable anymore.”

Neither are we.

Among the many concerns Harris laid out: The prospect of fraud or waste, rising U.S. food prices, the possibility of starting World War III by bringing Ukraine into NATO, and most of all — the cost. “I’m sorry, we don’t have that kind of money,” Harris explained bluntly, pointing to the U.S.’s trillion-dollar deficits from the post-Covid years.

Most tellingly, Politico’s article lacked any quotes by anyone else in favor of the Proxy War. The narrative continues drifting. Stay tuned.




 

herb749

Well-Known Member
🔥 As the drip, drip, drip of the unraveling Proxy War narrative continues, Politico ran a story yesterday headlined, “Ukraine’s top Freedom Caucus ally gets cold feet.”

According to Politico, on Tuesday evening, Representative Andy Harris (R-Md.) told his constituents at a town hall that it’s about time to wind down direct U.S. aid to Ukraine. “Is this more a stalemate? Should we be realistic about it? I think we probably should,” Harris explained at the town hall, held at a public library about 75 miles north of bright-blue Washington, DC.

Politico was especially interested in Republican Harris because the representative is considered a “key” influential member on the House Freedom Caucus, one who has been reliably pro-war, unlike other members. Until now. Harris is also the co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, which has always supported aid for Ukraine. Also until now.

Harris is almost certainly included in classified Congressional Proxy War briefings.

During his town hall, Harris expressed deep pessimism about the Proxy War. Referring to Ukraine’s glorious spring offensive — which was intended to turn the tide of the war — Harris said, “I’ll be blunt, it’s failed.” And he was blunt, too, about the bleak prospects for any victory ahead, saying “I’m not sure it’s winnable anymore.”

Neither are we.

Among the many concerns Harris laid out: The prospect of fraud or waste, rising U.S. food prices, the possibility of starting World War III by bringing Ukraine into NATO, and most of all — the cost. “I’m sorry, we don’t have that kind of money,” Harris explained bluntly, pointing to the U.S.’s trillion-dollar deficits from the post-Covid years.

Most tellingly, Politico’s article lacked any quotes by anyone else in favor of the Proxy War. The narrative continues drifting. Stay tuned.






Biden's not going to give up. I still believe he fears Zelensky turning on him. There'd be a drone hit on the capitol before that happens. Of course Russia will be blamed.
 

stgislander

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
According to Politico, on Tuesday evening, Representative Andy Harris (R-Md.) told his constituents at a town hall that it’s about time to wind down direct U.S. aid to Ukraine. “Is this more a stalemate? Should we be realistic about it? I think we probably should,” Harris explained at the town hall, held at a public library about 75 miles north of bright-blue Washington, DC.
75 miles north of DC is Pennsylvania.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
🚀 Here is the week in the Proxy War, in headlines!

Sunday, August 13th, New York Times:

image 5.png

Who needs F16s anyway?

Monday, August 14th, India’s News 18:

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It’s not anybody’s fault.

Tuesday, August 15th, Euromaidan Press:

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This year is pretty much already shot, we’re looking at next year.

Wednesday, August 16th, Newsweek:

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Zelensky reminds Bob Peters, I mean Joe Biden, about some inconvenient facts.

Thursday, August 17th, ABC:

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Ukraine needs help! This year!

Friday, August 18th, New York Times:

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The Proxy War is grim, but the Russians are taking a lot of casualties too! It only needs a little bit of help, to push it over the line to victory.

Friday, August 18th, Politico:

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Here are the F16s you wanted. Signed, Bob Peters.

Friday, August 18th, CBS:

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And just like that, we’re back on track!

And finally, today, August 19th, Asia Times:

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Whoops! Not everyone got the Bob Peters memo.

That sure was fast! Only one day between “making progress” and the “offensive’s a failure.” Both from “US officials.” Or more likely, the pages flipped so fast not everyone is singing the same song yet.

A question about the F16s: How are brand-new, freshly-trained Ukrainian F16 pilots supposed to compete with experienced Russian fighter pilots? It looks a lot like yet another example of Western generals’ overconfidence in the technology gap, rather than a realistic assessment of the odds.

Maybe I’m missing something.




 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
🚀 Yesterday, Tucker posted a thrilling hour-long interview with Colonel Douglas Macgregor. It was absolutely fascinating, the kind of interview confirming you’re not crazy after all, a sort of balm for the soul, as it were. Warning: if you start watching, you won’t want to stop. For obvious reasons, given the Colonel’s expertise, the wide-ranging interview focused on Ukraine, but at times also verged into most topics of interest to C&C readers.

In case you aren’t familiar with him, according to his Wikipedia page, Colonel Macgregor is a retired U.S. Army colonel and government official, and is now an author, military consultant, and media commentator. His war experience included leading an early tank battle in the Gulf War and he was a top military planner in the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. His 1997 book Breaking the Phalanx argued for radical reforms inside the Army. Macgregor also advised U.S. military strategy during the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

In other words, Macgregor has more real-world military experience than just about any other war commenter you’ll find infesting social media these days.

Colonel Macgregor is not new to the debate. He has appeared countless times on social media over the last couple years, as a heterodox commenter lending his war veteran perspective on the Proxy War. But this Tucker interview might be his most high-profile interview yet. I think you’ll be surprised at my conclusion.

But first, let’s take a look at a few of the best bits, in case you don’t have time to watch right now.

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At Tucker’s prompting, Colonel Macgregor evaluated the current state of the Proxy War. He doesn’t see a lot of bright spots, and for solid reasons:

We’re sending 33 Patriot missiles . These are missiles used to shoot down opposing forces. People in air defense will tell you that you shoot two missiles to make sure you get the target. Well, you run out of our missiles in 2-3 days. You can’t possibly defeat the thousands of projectiles being hurled in your direction. And of course, your radars light up and become targets.
This is a no-win situation.
Although the Russians were not prepared in February 2022 for this kind of war, they are now. And they’re continuing to prepare, which includes continuous mobilization. They’re up to 750,00 troops in and around Ukraine. That number is going to rise in the next year to 1.2 million.
Our intransigence, our demonstrated hatred and hostility toward Moscow and for Russia, has convinced the Russian people — as well as the leadership in Moscow — that they are going to have to fight us, and anyone allied with us.
So they’re preparing for that eventuality. That’s why it’s so important we wake up and understand that what we’ve done has backfired. Whatever we’ve set out to achieve has failed.
What we need to do now is stop this, and come to a settlement (that we may not like). And it needs to happen, and soon, before this thing gets out of control. Eventually, if we keep this up, within the next 6-8 months, we’ll see hundreds of thousands of Russian troops on the Polish border.


Listening to Macgregor’s confident, well-reasoned analysis, which smacked of commonsense expertise, it occurred to me that our strategy in Ukraine was perfect — perfect for the Russians, that is. If Biden had wanted to give Moscow a TED Talk on exactly how to beat NATO, he could never have dreamed up a better — worse — way. Biden has presented the Russians with a limited, slowly escalating engagement, against a corrupt, weak opponent, where NATO’s best weapons systems were gradually introduced, giving the Russians time to adjust, learn, and adapt, while continuously adding vast numbers soldiers — who are all becoming skilled battlefield veterans.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers are not becoming veterans, they are dying in droves. Even if we have a few thousand NATO troops stealthily involved, that’s nothing compared to the incalculable number of Russian troops gaining practical experience in fighting a modern, high-tech kinetic war. It’s a completely different kind of war than anything in human history. As Macgregor noted, in this new kind of war, all units are visible on the battlefield all the time. If something moves, it gets shot at and destroyed.

To fight the war this way was woke incompetence beyond imagination, sheer madness, badly misplaced hubris, possibly the worst and most reckless military strategy ever conceived in the Joint Chiefs’ transsexual, pride-flagged conference rooms — ever.

As I said, it was a jam-packed, tightly-edited, hour-long interview. There’s a lot there. Toward the end, Tucker showed Colonel Macgregor a clip of an American psyoperator who went to work for Ukraine, a man who dresses like a woman, in Ukrainian uniform, who explained how our war generals (and certain folks in the comments) see things:

image 2.png

Fake woman ‘Sarah’ Ashton-Cirillo describes himself as a political operative, now a Ukraine military spokesman
As the two men watched, former Florida resident ‘Sarah’ Cirillo, now a Ukraine army spokesman, explained in the clip (in part):


CIRILLO: “If you look at Putin’s mouth, you’ll notice blood drips from it. He’s a vampire, carrying out genocide against both Ukraine and Russians alike. Vlad Putin bathes in the blood of innocent children and enjoys it. And this is why the dictator of the Russian Federation must be deposed.”​



That over-the-top nonsense came from an official Ukrainian military announcement.

After noting the profound irony of a fake woman spouting fake war propaganda, Tucker asked Colonel Macgregor to respond to the trans spokesman’s “Vlad the Vampire” claim. Macgregor’s scathing reply should be pasted on the sides of buses:

We estimate that at least 60,000 children from Ukraine have disappeared, vanished, since this war began. Where are they? What about all of the women who have been sold into prostitution who once lived in Ukraine? This war is a disaster. The people bathing in blood are in Kyiv and Washington, not Moscow.
Was he wrong? If anything, he understated the case. Macgregor didn’t even mention the 400,000 dead Ukrainian men. Where is the Proxy War’s moral high ground actually located? It’s not located in Kyiv or Washington, as the Colonel aptly pointed out.

At the risk of spoiling the clip, here’s how Macgregor finished up, by putting his finger right on the heart of the problem, Biden’s “America last” policy:

The president announced yesterday, on one of these tweets (somebody tweets for him, obviously), that the people that have lost everything hiin Haw, thousands of them, lost everything, are going to receive a one-time payment of $700. Now, I haven’t been to Haw in a long time, if ever, but I know that $700 isn’t going to take care of a family for very long. But in the meantime, hundreds of millions, billions of dollars, continue to flow into this black hole called Ukraine.
Which I think is an exercise in fraud, deceit, and criminality, to be blunt. When’s it going to stop? When are we going to take care of Hawaii? Let’s go back to Ohio, where we had the derailment and the chemical spill? 4,000 human beings living in this area, and the water’s still not fit to drink, as I understand it. We wouldn’t even invest the money to move those people to a safer area, even if it meant temporary housing, or permanent housing, until this thing is cleaned up. What have we done?
This is the problem. It is America last. On every level. The last people who are consulted. The last people who are benefitting from anything happening in Washington. This cannot go on. It’s got to end. And I think it will end. But unfortunately, it’s like everything else. We’ll have to be pushed over the cliff, into the abyss. And I think that’s where we’re headed.



On that cheerful note, Tucker concluded the interview.

Here’s my take. That interview looked more than anything like Macgregor’s audition for vice-president. And that is exactly what the Biden Administration fears — which is the silver lining. If I quibbled with anything Macgregor said, it would be his conclusion that we’ll have to reach an absolute disaster before anything changes. Team Biden can’t afford to let the Ukraine war stretch into election season, where the discussion will focus on the undeniable failures of the Proxy War, failures not just on the battlefield, but also in the area of domestic priorities. Biden’s policy inarguably is “America last.”

But what do you think? Is Macgregor vice-presidential material? Or would it be another Admiral Stockdale disaster?



 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
🚀 Would you like to know how well Biden’s Proxy War is going? This well: yesterday CNN reluctantly ran a story headlined, “A key Russia-friendly bloc may decide to expand. Who stands to benefit?

In spite of eighteen months of relentless economic, military, and social sanctions — with the full might of U.S. intelligence agencies and their mean pranks, psyops, and wetwork, not to mention the odd blown-up pipeline or two — Russia now is leading a growing group of countries who seek to destroy the Unites States by vaporizing the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

CNN had to admit that Establishment Media’s anti-Putin campaign just seems to be making the Russian leader more and more popular:

Countries’ wide interest in joining BRICS is also a boost for Putin – who remains welcome in the bloc despite being seen as a pariah and war criminal in the West. It also points to a widening gap between the priorities of those countries lining up for BRICS and the wealthy Western nations that have united against him in support of Ukraine, analysts say.

You’d think a real threat to replace the dollar would interest Americans, but the story has been embargoed by nearly all the major Establishment Media players. It’s almost like they’re terrified people will find out about this problem. It might hurt Joe’s sagging popularity, which has now scraped through the bottom of the barrel and is rapidly tunneling toward the Earth’s molten core.

But CNN, which must have drawn the short straw, started its story reporting that members of the BRICS economic group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are meeting this week in South Africa at a summit that “could determine the future of the bloc” – and reporting how unhappy the group of countries is with a world order they see as “unfairly dominated by the West.”

While CNN characterized the meeting as just some boring discussions about adding new members — twenty-two countries want to join — the meeting is really about the creation of the group’s new gold-backed currency, which is intended to dethrone the dollar. American economists agree — which almost never happens — that it would be catastrophic for the United States if the BRICS currency succeeds.

CNN didn’t report what the leaders at the conference were saying, but regular citizens did:


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Most pundits (and lots of Brazilians) believe the CIA backed the marxist Lula in Brazil’s recent elections, to overthrow Brazil’s pro-Trump incumbent. Now he’s calling for the dollar to be overthrown. Great job, CIA. Next, Biden’s awesome Proxy War strategy has created a massive worldwide interest in dumping the dollar, in favor of a brand-new untested currency created by “Vlad the Vampire” (as Biden’s ladyboy spokesmen describe the Russian president).

Honestly, given the mess he’s made of everything, I think Biden’s best strategy at this point would be to start praising Putin. I’m not even kidding.

But let’s focus. Why are countries assembling against the dollar? What do they have against our fiat currency anyway?

I’m a lawyer, not an economist, but check out this chart, obtained this morning from the St. Louis Fed’s website. It shows “M1,” an acronym representing the total number of dollars currently in circulation. Remember, the Fed can issue new dollars whenever it wants, and boy did it during the pandemic, tossing out cash faster than bunch of democrat congresswomen at a South Florida strip club:

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For Portanders: the M1 graph shows the amount of dollars in circulation increased from a long-established, stable 4,000 billion in 2020 to over 20,000 billion in just 24 months. In other words, there is now FIVE TIMES AS MUCH CASH IN CIRCULATION as there was in January 2020.

And the buying power of the dollar is, at bottom, based on how many total dollars there are. It’s just math. Whenever you expand M1 by printing more dollars, all the existing dollars are automatically worth less than before. Expanding the money supply is often called an “invisible tax.”

I know what you’re thinking. You’re wondering if this M1 explosion is the reason why eggs now cost $10 a dozen. It is. But there’s an even bigger problem. This quintupling of dollars was a direct attack on Russia and China, who hold a tremendous amount of our currency, which was received in payment for shipping stuff to America. For example, China ships us TV’s and computers and washing machines, and we ship them little green pieces of paper. Russia sends us grain and fertilizer and natural gas and all they get are the little green sawbucks too.

Those dollars they are holding are only useful when they get around to buying something real with them.

So in other words, in one fell swoop, by devaluing the currency, we just gave ourselves a 75% discount on everything we’ve ever bought from Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, India, you name it. Everyone holding dollars watched their holdings be suddenly and unexpectedly miniaturized.

Honey, we shrunk the dollar!

Now — for some reason — Russia and China and a lot of other countries are like, hey, wait a minute. We need a stable world currency. A currency backed by gold, so that it can’t be shrunk whenever the issuing country doesn’t feel like paying its debts. And then, to add insult to injury, on top of shrinking the dollar, Biden also excreted a massively-complicated set of international sanctions rules, telling other countries what they can and can’t buy from each other, making their dollars even harder to use.

So … how is the Proxy War going? Terrible. Biden is about to sleepwalk his way into making America a financial third-world country, because if we ever have to start buying things from other countries using BRICS gold-backed currency, eggs are going to cost more than $10 a dozen. A LOT more.

Thanks Joe!


 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Joe Biden’s Ukraine defense falls apart




President Barack Obama famously warned fellow Democrats in 2020, “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f–k things up.”

The warning was ignored by many as an almost brotherly reference to Biden’s habit of making false claims (like being arrested when seeking to see Nelson Mandela) or his continual verbal gaffes.

Biden has always had a certain penchant for bragging, whether it’s claiming a dead man told him he reached a million miles on Amtrak, being a cross-country trucker or fighting off some “bad dude” named Corn Pop.

But one of those bravado moments may have revealed more than vanity.

Ironically, it’s the one controversial story that appears entirely true.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

The Heritage Foundation Suggested We Form A Ukraine Strategy. The Neocons Lost Their Minds




In an op-ed last week, Roberts noted this as part of a pointed criticism of an underhanded White House plan to force another round of aid to Ukraine into a supplemental funding bill that would add money to FEMA’s depleted Disaster Relief Fund (DRF). Roberts rightly says this is a dirty trick designed to pressure Republicans to support more aid to Ukraine by tying it to aid for hurricane and wildfire victims.

Then this week, Heritage posted a couple of ads making the entirely fair point that every American has now sent more money to Ukraine than to the victims of the Maui fires. One of those ads argued that until the Biden administration comes up with a plan to end the war, Congress shouldn’t approve another cent of aid.



 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
🔥 While virtually all U.S. Establishment Media sources reported yesterday that anonymous U.S. officials were whispering that Russian President Putin “probably” ordered a hit on Wagner Group’s possibly-deceased leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, I was forced to go to Aljazeera News to find out what the Russian president said about the downed plane.

In an article plainly headlined, “What did President Putin say about the Russia plane crash,” Aljazeera translated Putin’s statement about the crash. Here it is, in full:

“As for the aviation tragedy, first of all I want to express my most sincere condolences to the families of all the victims.

It is always a tragedy. Indeed, if employees of the Wagner company were there, and the preliminary data indicate they were, I would like to note that these people made a significant contribution to our common cause of combating the neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine, we remember this, we know it and we shall not forget.

I had known Prigozhin for a very long time, since the start of the ’90s. He was a man with a difficult fate, and he made serious mistakes in life. And he strove for the results he needed for himself, and when I asked him about it, for the common cause, as in these last months. He was a talented person, a talented businessman, he worked not only in our country, and worked with results, but also abroad, in Africa, in particular. He was involved there with oil, gas, precious metals and stones.

As far as I know, he just returned yesterday from Africa. He met some officials here. But what is quite definite – the head of the Investigative Committee reported to me this morning – is they have already begun a preliminary investigation into this event. And it will be carried out in full, and taken right to the end. There are no doubts about this.

Let’s see what the investigators say in the near future. And now, expert examinations, technical examinations and genetic ones are being carried out. This takes some time.”


Putin’s statement reminded me of another disaster that was also initially blamed on Putin by anonymous U.S. intelligence officials: the Nordsteam pipeline bombings. Then (as now) Putin’s initial comments were refrained and professional, promising updates after an investigation.

And we all know how that one turned out.



 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
🚀 The UK Telegraph ran another contrary Proxy War op-ed last week headlined, “Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win.” The sub-headline even more controversially suggested, “Victory may be in sight for Vladimir Putin.”

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A win for Vampire Putin! Say it isn’t so. How did that get past the censors?

After acknowledging some minor wins for Ukraine in last week’s fighting, the author described the vast difference between the dwindling number of potential soldiers available to Ukraine versus the relatively huge, steadily-increasing numbers available to Russia:

It’s a brutal but simple calculation: Kyiv is running out of men. US sources have calculated that armed forces have lost as many as 70,000 killed in action, with another 100,000 injured. While Russian casualties are higher still, the ratio nevertheless favours Moscow, as Ukraine struggles to replace soldiers in the face of a seemingly endless supply of conscripts.
Volunteers are no longer coming forward in numbers sufficient to keep the army at fighting strength: those most willing to fight signed up years ago. The latest recruitment slogan is “it’s OK to be afraid,” but there are still many attempting to dodge being drafted to fight on the front lines.

Not too good. But the vast mismatch between Ukraine’s available armed forces and what Russia can muster has been easily known from the very beginning of the conflict. So, why are op-eds appearing now citing how badly Ukraine is outnumbered? This tardy analysis mostly resembles a typical media narrative shift, where op-editors are recruited in the first wave to soften the blow and to provide some stuffing for a developing replacement narrative.

Here’s the Proxy War’s narrative timeline:

Stage 1: Russian victory is impossible.

Stage 2: Russian victory is unlikely.

Stage 3: Russia cannot be allowed to win.

Stage 4: Russia is winning, but at what cost?

Stage 5: Russian victory was inevitable.

Currently, we seem to have departed Narrative Stage 4 en route to Stage 5.





 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
🚀 Now look at this article. Foreign Affairs ran a very interesting, detailed story around the same time as the Telegraph’s op-ed, which panned the other part of the war equation, the military technology. Put the two stories together, and Ukraine doesn’t have the men or material to win. Here’s the headline:

image 10.png

This article argued, as I have many times, that it was always misplaced to rely on “revolutionary” high-tech weapons — like drones, satellite guidance, and artificial intelligence — to turn the tide of war in Ukraine’s favor. Most fascinating of all, the article compared casualty rates from Ukraine’s Proxy War, such as in tank and infantry losses, against similar rates from World Wars I and II.

In short, looking at bare mutual casualty figures, the vaunted high-tech weapons have not produced any meaningful results different from what were achieved in 1918 using low-tech weapons.

The explanation for this seems obvious in hindsight. With each incremental advance in weapons technology, the adversary adapts and accommodates. It’s just a high-tech arms race. One example from the article was Ukraine’s initial use of sophisticated, expensive drones, which were destroyed in large numbers by Russia’s guided antiaircraft systems. So Ukraine adapted, switching to swarms of cheap, NATO-supplied drones — not much more than flying bombs or cameras. And the Russians countered with their own inexpensive antiaircraft artillery and handheld jammers.

And on and on it goes, cycle after deadly cycle, similar to the dance between computer hackers and anti-virus developers.

The article was a high-brow, intellectual analysis of the Proxy War’s surprises, or maybe non-surprises, and the reader is left with a disquieting conviction similar to the Telegraph’s simpler take: the Proxy War is just a grinding war of attrition that Ukraine cannot win on the battlefield. It also makes plain that military technology and strategy is rapidly advancing. Where it will end is anybody’s guess.

If the Telegraph’s op-ed is correct, Ukraine lacks the men to win. And if Foreign Affairs is right, Ukraine lacks any meaningful advantage in technology. Which leaves it where? Right where Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in Tucker’s interview yesterday: it’s time to make peace.



 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
🚀 Related, this emotionally powerful clip of actual Russian war propaganda was making the rounds this week. This is the kind of thing that the State Department would like to prevent Americans from seeing at all. Why? What makes State Department employees better at evaluating information from foreign governments than anybody else?

Watch this short, Russian-produced clip and tell me what you think. Is it dangerous propaganda that could overpower your mental faculties or even hypnotize you? Or is it just one more data point in the broad tapestry of the Proxy War?

image 14.png





 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
🚀 We haven’t had a real Proxy War update in a few weeks, apart from noting the steady dribble of the changing narrative. So let me bring you up to speed. In summary: Ukraine went all out, Russia responded in a totally predictable and very smart way, and then Zelensky hired a cleaner.

Media has not covered Ukraine’s “big push” into the south, which started last week. They appear — finally — to be throwing everything in the arsenal at breaking through the Russian defensive lines, with the well-known goal of cutting off the Crimean peninsula. This is supposed to give the Ukrainians strong negotiating leverage or something.

But the Ukrainians remain bogged down in their failing counteroffensive. In the south. So, Russia appears to be starting a significant new offensive in the north. That’s the kind of move you can make when you have a lot more men than your opponent.

Ouch! Ukraine now has to decide whether to move forces out the southern theater to defend against the new Russian incursion in the north. Meanwhile, tick-tock, tick-tock, the time is running out before U.S. election season begins in earnest later this fall, when Ukrainian winter weather makes counteroffensives even harder, and when the democrats aren’t going to want to be stapled to any so-called “quagmire” in Ukraine.

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The Hill said it would be a “really big deal” if the Russian northern offensive gets any traction:

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For even more context, there’s a perfectly good reason why the narrative is shifting and why the warlike Establishment Media has suddenly gotten all cynical about Ukraine’s chances. Take a look at this recent map showing all of Ukraine’s progress since the start of the CounterOffensive™ three months ago.

After billions of dollars worth of U.S. and NATO war material has been consumed, and after who knows how many Ukrainian lives have been lost, only the teeny-tiny blue areas have been recaptured from the wily Russians:


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And then, what do you know? Yesterday Zelensky suddenly and unexpectedly fired his top war leader. Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov, who has been in charge of the Proxy War since day one, is out. What’s even more interesting is who is in. Here’s the Hill’s headline:

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The Hill did not explain the need for the change, of course, and provided no detail whatsoever:

In a statement, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky said he thinks the ministry “needs new approaches” and noted that Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov had served in the position for 550 days of “full-scale war.”


But, what kind of new approach? The replacement Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov, 41, is the current head of State Property Fund (a government agency that sells state assets to private investors), has a background in telecommunications and finance — not military — and is an Uzbekistani muslim. He wasn’t born or raised in Ukraine.

So why him? Umerov is a dealmaker.

The New York Times reported that Umerov was the chief Ukrainian negotiator of the deal with Russia allowing Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea, and has also been a prominent negotiator on ongoing prisoner exchange dealmaking with Russia. Shortly after the war started, Umerov — who attended early peace negotiations in March — told the BBC he was determined "to find political and diplomatic resolution to this brutal invasion.”

A political and diplomatic resolution with Russia.

So. If the incoming Minster of Defense has a background, not in military, but in negotiation and finance, what do we suppose they expect him to negotiate?

The obvious answer, which none of the newspapers I reviewed had the stones to even suggest, is
a peace deal.


 
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GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Cuba uncovers human trafficking of Cubans to fight for Russia in Ukraine



The statement from Cuba's foreign ministry gave few details, but noted the trafficking ring was operating both within the Caribbean island nation, thousands of miles from Moscow, and in Russia.

"The Ministry of the Interior...is working on the neutralization and dismantling of a human trafficking network that operates from Russia to incorporate Cuban citizens living there, and even some from Cuba, into the military forces participating in war operations in Ukraine," the Cuban government statement said.

The Russian government has not commented on the allegations.
 

Kyle

ULTRA-F###ING-MAGA!
PREMO Member
IMG_4382.png
 

herb749

Well-Known Member
🚀 We haven’t had a real Proxy War update in a few weeks, apart from noting the steady dribble of the changing narrative. So let me bring you up to speed. In summary: Ukraine went all out, Russia responded in a totally predictable and very smart way, and then Zelensky hired a cleaner.

Media has not covered Ukraine’s “big push” into the south, which started last week. They appear — finally — to be throwing everything in the arsenal at breaking through the Russian defensive lines, with the well-known goal of cutting off the Crimean peninsula. This is supposed to give the Ukrainians strong negotiating leverage or something.

But the Ukrainians remain bogged down in their failing counteroffensive. In the south. So, Russia appears to be starting a significant new offensive in the north. That’s the kind of move you can make when you have a lot more men than your opponent.

Ouch! Ukraine now has to decide whether to move forces out the southern theater to defend against the new Russian incursion in the north. Meanwhile, tick-tock, tick-tock, the time is running out before U.S. election season begins in earnest later this fall, when Ukrainian winter weather makes counteroffensives even harder, and when the democrats aren’t going to want to be stapled to any so-called “quagmire” in Ukraine.

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The Hill said it would be a “really big deal” if the Russian northern offensive gets any traction:

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For even more context, there’s a perfectly good reason why the narrative is shifting and why the warlike Establishment Media has suddenly gotten all cynical about Ukraine’s chances. Take a look at this recent map showing all of Ukraine’s progress since the start of the CounterOffensive™ three months ago.

After billions of dollars worth of U.S. and NATO war material has been consumed, and after who knows how many Ukrainian lives have been lost, only the teeny-tiny blue areas have been recaptured from the wily Russians:

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And then, what do you know? Yesterday Zelensky suddenly and unexpectedly fired his top war leader. Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov, who has been in charge of the Proxy War since day one, is out. What’s even more interesting is who is in. Here’s the Hill’s headline:

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The Hill did not explain the need for the change, of course, and provided no detail whatsoever:




But, what kind of new approach? The replacement Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov, 41, is the current head of State Property Fund (a government agency that sells state assets to private investors), has a background in telecommunications and finance — not military — and is an Uzbekistani muslim. He wasn’t born or raised in Ukraine.

So why him? Umerov is a dealmaker.

The New York Times reported that Umerov was the chief Ukrainian negotiator of the deal with Russia allowing Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea, and has also been a prominent negotiator on ongoing prisoner exchange dealmaking with Russia. Shortly after the war started, Umerov — who attended early peace negotiations in March — told the BBC he was determined "to find political and diplomatic resolution to this brutal invasion.”

A political and diplomatic resolution with Russia.

So. If the incoming Minster of Defense has a background, not in military, but in negotiation and finance, what do we suppose they expect him to negotiate?

The obvious answer, which none of the newspapers I reviewed had the stones to even suggest, is a peace deal.




Democrats may find tough times getting more war money. Even trying to tie the funding to disaster relief.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
🚀 According to Business Insider, Elon Musk might actually have saved the world. BI ran a story yesterday headlined, “Elon Musk blocked Ukraine's access to Starlink near Crimea after speaking with Russian officials, biographer says.
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According to journalist Walter Isaacson, author of an upcoming biography on SpaceX’s founder, after Musk spoke directly to Russian officials and became convinced of an imminent threat of nuclear war, the founder personally intervened to block Ukraine from carrying out a massive, secret drone strike on Moscow's Black Sea Fleet.

Basically, right before the attack, Musk ordered Ukraine’s Starlink internet service cut off, just as if they hadn’t paid their bills. Which they hadn’t, technically, since they’re using Starlink for free. But you get the idea.

The internet service was "never meant to be weaponized," SpaceX CEO Gwynne Shotwell said earlier this year, referring to Ukraine's use of Starlink for drone reconnaissance and attacks. "There are things that we can do to limit their ability to do that," she said. "There are things that we can do, and have done."

According to an excerpt from the book, during an interview Musk asked biographer Isaacson, "How am I in this war?" He explained, "Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars. It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes."

Well. I suspect Starlink also has a little something to do with a replacement digital currency, which can only possibly work as a cash replacement if there is 100% reliable connectivity everywhere all at once. But that’s a subject for a different post.

And let’s not forget our own military’s role. The U.S. military is SpaceX’s biggest customer, and is probably the only reason why Elon keeps getting away with his Twitter free speech project. A New York Times article in July explained:

The federal government is one of SpaceX’s biggest customers, using its rockets for NASA missions and launching military surveillance satellites. Senior Pentagon officials have tried mediating issues involving Starlink, particularly Ukraine, a person familiar with the discussions said.
The Defense Department confirmed it contracts with Starlink, but it declined to elaborate, citing “the critical nature of these systems.”

Anyway. It looks a whole lot like Elon Musk may be able to claim, with some justification, that he has saved the world. He might not be a real superhero, but you have to give him some credit.



 
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