What am I missing about this???

Yooper

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Here's a blog I follow (for second career reasons). It's not a "guy on the street" view it's from someone who works in this field/adjacent to this field.

AAAS

blogs.sciencemag.org blogs.sciencemag.org

About halfway in:
Now to vaccines. That list I’ve been referring to has a long string of people working in this area, and that’s a good thing, because a vaccine is probably the best long-term solution. A safe and effective vaccine, let me amend that, while noting that proving both of those is what makes vaccine development the field it is. You have the antibody-enhancement problem mentioned above, you have the potential for a pathogen to mutate its way out of efficacy, and you always have the risk of immunological side effects. Readers my age and older will recall the 1976 “swine flu” debacle, in which a huge campaign was launched to vaccinate the public against an epidemic that never actually materialized, while also setting off hundreds of well-publicized cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome. That is a well-known immune disorder that usually occurs after a mild viral infection, where the nervous system’s myelin sheaths come under attack. It generally resolves, but not always, and can land patients in intensive care. The swine flu vaccine (a live-attenuate-virus preparation) is the largest vaccine-driven GBS incident that I’m aware of, and we do not want to repeat that. Vaccines by definition are being given to large numbers of healthy people – it’s vital that you do not cause more trouble than you’re trying to prevent.
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emphasis mine

In other words, this is really complicated. Sometimes it's better to go slow and steady than rush to judgment. This is a case of "just don't do something, stand there" for a bit.

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S

Stjohns3269

Active Member
Yooper said:
Okay, but not at all seeing that. I am seeing that in the article you linked to. Honestly, in an age where intellectual dishonesty has become far too much of the norm, Stableford's article is truly awful.

Here's his bio:
www.yahoo.com

Dylan Stableford, Senior Writer for Yahoo

Dylan Stableford is a senior writer for Yahoo News, covering breaking news and national affairs. Previously, he served as a senior editor at The Wrap, digital editor at Folio magazine, managing editor at Mediabistro.com and a producer at MTV.com. He has also contributed to numerous publications...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

There is NOTHING in it to suggest he is at all competent (as in, specialties) to opine as he does (there is, however, a definite political orientation that would explain his take). Frankly, his take is irresponsible.

First, it is Trump who is correct, not Stableford. AT THIS POINT, the seasonal flu is far worse than the coronavirus.

Second, he quotes all these closures as proof as to how bad this all is. But the closures aren't an indication of how bad the coronavirus is, they are an indication of how bad some think the coronavirus is. There's a HUGE difference between the two. These precautions may be warranted and as such I appreciate the preventative measures entities are taking. HOWEVER, when Stableford uses them to increase the level of fear/panic that's awfull.

Going slow (rather than fast) is essential here. For numerous reasons we do NOT want an over-reaction. See my next post.

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I agree Stabelfords article is full of conjecture and what ifs. I agree he is acting like chicken little and it is irresponsible.

However i believe Trump is under selling the risk as he wants to calm the markets down. And he is not correct in saying the seasonal flu is worse as we have a vaccine for the seasonal flu. We dont have one and one have one for Covid-19 for at least a year. The mortality rate also seems to be growing higher. it just depends on what populations of people the virus spreads in. If it were to get to a hospital or elder care center you would see the numbers spike as those patients are most vulnerable.

I think a better approach would be honesty and taking action to reduce the spread rather than continue o say it is not a threat.
 
Spitfire

Spitfire

Active Member
itsbob said:
And you've proved yourself to be nothing short of a rock with lips..

The market is based purely on emotion, of what's to come.. you scare an entire populace with fake news, and fake predictions the market will dump. Congrats to the Liberals, and the Liberal media, they found a way to (at last temporarily) destroy our economy, just to make Trump look bad. They KNOW they can't beat him if the economy is doing good, so let's make crap up and hurt our own country.

What will be amazing is when this all blows over and the market rebounds leading into November and there is no way to stop it.

I'm curious who you think "you people" is.
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Greetings:

I've given this some thought, and I think you're right: this is the work of the liberals.

Here's how it works: the Fed should have been tightening over the past few years. Instead, because of public comments by the liberals, they either didn't tighten or eased.

B-b-b-b-ut the Fed is an independent agency, right, and not subject to the whims of other, right?

Right.

But if you've paid careful attention to their forward guidance, with their re-vamped language which started with Bernanke the #1 above all else goal of the Fed is to not upset the markets. This is why the Fed Funds futures have become so important, as it is the harbinger.

So, you've got the liberals publicly goading the Fed to act a certain way which causes the expectations transmitted by the Fed Funds futures to change and ultimately changing how the Fed acts. Again, because above all else, they do not want to upset the markets. See how that works?

You figured it out yet? You figured out that Trump is "the liberal" in this scenario? I know you have.
 
Yooper

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Let's add this to the conversation. From an epidemiologist:
theconversation.com

What’s the difference between pandemic, epidemic and outbreak?

From the neighborhood to the newsroom to the White House, nobody stays silent during a health emergency. These terms are often mixed up, and it matters who is using them and when.
theconversation.com theconversation.com

A fast read; worth clicking over (less than 5 minutes).

The opening paragraphs:
The coronavirus is on everyone’s minds. As an epidemiologist, I find it interesting to hear people using technical terms – like quarantine or super spreader or reproductive number – that my colleagues and I use in our work every day.

But I’m also hearing newscasters and neighbors alike mixing up three important words: outbreak, epidemic and pandemic.

Simply put, the difference between these three scenarios of disease spread is a matter of scale.
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A snip from the middle:
Terms are political, not just medical
Epidemiologists are principally concerned with preventing disease, which may be fundamentally different than the broader concerns of governments or international health organizations.
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emphasis in the original (i.e., a section heading)

The closing two paragraphs:
A formal declaration of COVID-19 or any other infectious disease as pandemic tells governments, agencies and aid organizations worldwide to shift efforts from containment to mitigation. It has economic, political and societal impacts on a global scale.

Formal declaration needn’t incite fear or cause you to stockpile surgical masks. It doesn’t mean the virus has become more infectious or more deadly, nor that your personal risk of getting the disease is greater. But it will be a historical event.
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emphasis mine

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Yooper

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Now let's add this:
nypost.com

Coronavirus going to hit its peak and start falling sooner than you think

Nations are closing borders, stocks are plummeting and a New York Times headline reads: “The Coronavirus Has Put the World’s Economy in Survival Mode.” Both political parties have realized the cris…
nypost.com nypost.com

BTW, the author, Michael Fumento, made his bones with his well-regarded take on the hysteria of the late 1980s/early 1990s that "heterosexual AIDS" was soon to kill off everyone in the world. He didn't agree. From the Publisher's Weekly review:
The belief that AIDS is poised to break out widely among non-drug-abusing heterosexuals is a myth created by the media and public health officials, charges Fumento. This former AIDS analyst for the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights contends that estimates of the number of infected people, and of the risks to heterosexuals, have been grossly exaggerated, arguing further that the epidemic appears to be peaking. According to Fumento, two groups have fueled the alarmist myth: prudish conservative moralists and liberal "democratizers" eager to demonstrate that AIDS is not a "gay plague." His allegation that AIDS research has drained funds from the fight against cancer will outrage activists who want more federal dollars spent on AIDS. Among this polemic's more controversial or startling contentions is the assertion that the incidence of AIDS in Africa has been greatly overstated, and the claim that bisexuality among U.S. blacks and Hispanics, far more than that among whites, has played a major role in AIDS transmission.
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emphasis mine

Back to the New York Post article. Very hard to snip so I encourage all to click over and ponder. But here are a few:
Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law.* First formulated in 1840 and ignored in every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.
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The following two paragraphs:
Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.

As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.
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Though the Post article shows him to be simply an attorney, author, and journalist, Fumento has been involved in this sort of stuff for quite some time. Sort of a next-level Mary Roach (whose work I love; you may be familiar with her work, as well):
en.wikipedia.org

Mary Roach - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Mary Roach, Author of Fuzz, Grunt, Packing for Mars, Stiff, Spook and Bonk

www.maryroach.net

Will COVID-19 play out in a similar fashion? Who knows, but everything we seem to know about it at this point seems to point that it will (well, at least, from what I have been reading on medical sites/blogs).

I'll close with Fumento's opening paragraphs:
Nations are closing borders, stocks are plummeting and a New York Times headline reads: “The Coronavirus Has Put the World’s Economy in Survival Mode.” Both political parties have realized the crisis could severely impact the November elections — House, Senate, presidency. And sacré bleu, they’ve even shuttered the Louvre!

Some of these reactions are understandable, much of it pure hysteria. Meanwhile, the spread of the virus continues to slow.
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Only adding that there are many who are irresponsibly channeling Rahm Emanuel:
You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.
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www.brainyquote.com

Rahm Emanuel Quotes

"You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And..." - Rahm Emanuel quotes from BrainyQuote.com
www.brainyquote.com www.brainyquote.com

* Re: Farr's Law. From this guy:
en.wikipedia.org

William Farr - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com

Farr law

Definition of Farr law in the Medical Dictionary by The Free Dictionary
medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com

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Bann

Bann

Doris Day meets Lady Gaga
PREMO Member
TPD said:
But Tucker just told me people I know will get the CV - I know you so that means you are the one!

(but glad you are still ok)
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:jameo:


I'll keep y'all posted! I'm sure the haters will be waiting with bated breath. :yay:
 
Yooper

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
No, I don't think so. Sorry to tell you the awful news, but you're showing signs of double posting vision! o_O

146017



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vraiblonde

vraiblonde

Board Mommy
PREMO Member
Patron
Bann said:
Reporting in for today:

Still no fever 9 days after CPAC. :yay:
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Are you sure? Because Big Brother is insisting that this virus is so, you know, virulent that anyone who comes into contact with someone who has it will drop dead immediately, right after infecting everyone in the world.
 
Bann

Bann

Doris Day meets Lady Gaga
PREMO Member
vraiblonde said:
Are you sure? Because Big Brother is insisting that this virus is so, you know, virulent that anyone who comes into contact with someone who has it will drop dead immediately, right after infecting everyone in the world.
Click to expand...
Just took it again! Normalllll. I'll update in the am. :yay:
 
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