What am I missing about this???

[truby20]

This is religion, you folks believe he is divine and that any criticism is evil.

Got it, this situation, which no one is making political, makes it clear. You worship him like a god, that’s why the rally’s have the audience they do.

We, as humans, have an insatiable urge for purpose, structural religion/church gave us that for centuries. In its demise, it makes sense that new outlets would be found. The vast majority here see Trump in that light, I get it, you’re only human.

 

[Gilligan]

So Pelosi convinced Japan to close schools until April?

You really aren't very good at this stuff. You should stick to baking brownies.

 

[truby20]

I’m watching Fox News

the guest just attacked California for not responding quickly enough to the reality

this deflates your insanity and stupidly about the situation

this is a black swan event that was going to happen.

 

[truby20]

If you actually get the details, the people at risk are older, risk of death starts at like 80. Like any flu (virus), those with compromised immune systems and other health issues are the most at risk. Some people will get the virus and not get all the symptoms, they will be carriers, but not severely ill.

The market is reacting to China, more than the US or even the rest of the world. Disruptions in the supply chain there are the WORRY.
Don't forget, markets don't react to the past, they are looking at the future, hence they operate on fear, so they sell off those investments they believe are most at risk. This combined with slightly lower earnings than "anticipated" drives down stock prices. Good time to buy.

Just remember, the media, are in the business of selling commercial time, they are entertainers now, not journalists, but entertainers.
They will spread their message of doom and gloom, when we look back, and it was just a blip, they will have moved on to the next crisis.

They don't keep count of how many "wrongs" the score in this type of reporting.
Do you recall the run up to Desert Storm. The glorification of the Republican Guard and how the Iraq would extract a huge price.
How about Y2K. The world was going to collapse. Patients were going to die.

Yes, the most at risk will die, but the percent of the population that will be severely affected is very small.

There wasn’t a record fall in the Dow in the lead up to y2k, I was there, it didn’t happen

yes. the market is reacting to unprecedented impacts to China

the reality is somd.com was stolen by a carpretbager, and I’m working daily to get it back for the actual residents of somd

 

[truby20]

You know what? None of this matters

for weeks you said it was hysteria, crud, whatever.

blame pelosi, Obama, whomover

I never blamed anyone, it’s an illness, they happen

 

[Yooper]

this is a black swan event that was going to happen.

Hi, Truby.

Technically, in the strictest of definitions used by Taleb (the originator) if a potential event was known so that the sense was/is that it "was going to happen," then it isn't a black swan event. But I understand your point.

My sense is that at this point the coronavirus will only become, to use your term, a "black swan event" if we keep getting panicky about it and overreact.

We'll see. But at this point it's just a new version of the flu that is being made worse by a variety of factors. And I say this as someone who is in one (or more) of the categories that put a person at a much higher health risk....

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[truby20]

Hi, Truby.

Technically if a potential event was known so that the sense was/is that it "was going to happen," then it isn't a black swan event. But I understand your point.

My sense is that at this point the coronavirus will only become, to use your term, a "black swan event" if we keep getting panicky about it and overreact.

We'll see. But at this point it's just a new version of the flu that is being made worse by a variety of factors. And I say this as someone who is in one (or more) of the categories that puts me at a much higher risk....

--- End of line (MCP)

Society is not reacting like it’s a know event

maybe it’s a white swan event? I’m not being silly, a lot of people said this was something we should have know .

 

[Yooper]

Society is not reacting like it’s a know event

maybe it’s a white swan event? I’m not being silly, a lot of people said this was something we should have know .

Folks use "black swan event" these days to mean a massive catastrophe. But that's not how Taleb meant it when he coined the phrase (Taleb is a really interesting character; he had a great blog that he seldom seems post to anymore, but when he did it was must reading (his books are nice to have and skim through, but a bit too dense for me given my current "gotta get to" reading pile)).

I would say society is reacting as one would expect it to. Regardless, it was clearly a known event (as CDC reps have said, it's not a matter of if, but when and that's something we've been hearing since forever as global travel has gotten easier).

I think what has scared people (to include me) was the wacky (?) way China went about (still going about?) handling this. We in the West saw this and no doubt thought/think that if it's that bad there what will happen when it gets here? But's it's kind of a false analogy; China's reaction was certainly driven by the public housing scheme in the affected areas (and the lack of available health care for these areas). I say this because we don't see the same sort of draconian actions going on in Hong Kong (at least I haven't seen it). This example seems to imply that China's reaction to the virus has less to do with the virus and more to do with the living conditions where the virus has hit hardest. This would be in line with standard/conventional lines of thought wrt public health.

Reactions by Western countries give the impression that this must be a really bad virus, but I think this is misleading, as well. Given China's less-than-transparent handling of the virus Western governments rightly took measures that might, in hindsight, turn out to be - pardon the idiom - overkill.

We'll see. I'm concerned. But not too concerned. This is not a Captain Trips scenario.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[truby20]

Folks use "black swan event" these days to mean a massive catastrophe. But that's not how Taleb meant it when he coined the phrase (Taleb is a really interesting character; he had a great blog that he seldom seems post to anymore, but when he did it was must reading (his books are nice to have and skim through, but a bit too dense for me given my current "gotta get to" reading pile)).

I would say society is reacting as one would expect it to. Regardless, it was clearly a known event (as CDC reps have said, it's not a matter of if, but when and that's something we've been hearing since forever as global travel has gotten easier).

I think what has scared people (to include me) was the wacky (?) way China went about (still going about?) handling this. We in the West saw this and no doubt thought/think that if it's that bad there what will happen when it gets here? But's it's kind of a false analogy; China's reaction was certainly driven by the public housing scheme in the affected areas (and the lack of available health care for these areas). I say this because we don't see the same sort of draconian actions going on in Hong Kong (at least I haven't seen it). This example seems to imply that China's reaction to the virus has less to do with the virus and more to do with the living conditions where the virus has hit hardest. This would be in line with standard/conventional lines of thought wrt public health.

Reactions by Western countries give the impression that this must be a really bad virus, but I think this is misleading, as well. Given China's less-than-transparent handling of the virus Western governments rightly took measures that might, in hindsight, turn out to be - pardon the idiom - overkill.

We'll see. I'm concerned. But not too concerned. This is not a Captain Trips scenario.

--- End of line (MCP)

I agree on all these points

Fox has stopped attacking pelosi, but now attacking CDC funding....OK

 

[transporter]

Hi, Truby.

Technically, in the strictest of definitions used by Taleb (the originator) if a potential event was known so that the sense was/is that it "was going to happen," then it isn't a black swan event. But I understand your point.

--- End of line (MCP)

"Technically speaking" you are incorrect as well;

Taleb describes

a black swan as an event that 1) is beyond normal expectations that is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown, 2) has a catastrophic impact when it does occur, and 3) is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable. For extremely rare events,...

You forgot point #3. We are now in the hindsight mode.

Black Swan in the Stock Market: What Is It, With Examples and History

A black swan is an event that is rare, very important, and is both difficult to have predicted but is considered obvious in hindsight.

www.investopedia.com

 

[Yooper]

"Technically speaking" you are incorrect as well;



You forgot point #3. We are now in the hindsight mode.

Black Swan in the Stock Market: What Is It, With Examples and History

A black swan is an event that is rare, very important, and is both difficult to have predicted but is considered obvious in hindsight.

www.investopedia.com

I went with what I know from reading Taleb and thus went with what I found here:

Black swan theory - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I don't remember the "hindsight mode" in from my reading, but your link says that Taleb said it, so I looked further. Sure enough, the hindsight mode idea is found here so I stand corrected:

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Aplogies to @truby20 for wrongly correcting her. However, my larger point stands: this probably isn't a global catastrophe. Thank you, though, for the correction.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[Spitfire]

I'm telling you, it's the HIV/AIDS of 2020.

Greetings:

Then certainly Pence is the right man to handle it.

So how many millions are you predicting will die? 30? 50? 100? More?

Greetings:

As long as you are included, who cares how many or how few? As long as you wither that’s all that matters.

 

[WingsOfGold]

Greetings:

Then certainly Pence is the right man to handle it.


Greetings:

As long as you are included, who cares how many or how few? As long as you wither that’s all that matters.

Not so at all, I'm pulling for the entire state of California.

 

[WingsOfGold]

My argument against this line of thought is “who” are the ones who would incite this panic? Do you think there is some world illuminate that triggered this?

or that we are looking at about 2% of the world about to be wiped out, yeah that’s a cause for alarm.

That's about 140,000,000 approx twice that died in WW2. how will we package that much Soylent Green????

 

[Kyle]

... how will we package that much Soylent Green????

In bulk and distributed through Costco.

 

[GURPS]

You worship him like a god,

Ah NO ..... that's what the left does

 

[GURPS]

the reality is somd.com was stolen by a carpret bager, and I’m working daily to get it back for the actual residents of somd

@vraiblonde

 

[GURPS]

This is not a Captain Trips scenario.

for the pop culture reference

 

[stgislander]

I'm impressed at the number of people watching the markets right now wondering when to jump in and buy more. That would be the last thing on people's minds if they truely thought this was a global pandemic.

 

[Gilligan]

the reality is somd.com was stolen by a carpretbager, and I’m working daily to get it back for the actual residents of somd

Priceless!