SamSpade said:
I've read stats regarding the "crap" jobs. By and large, Mexican illegals have a lot of them - but they are by no means "typical" of your average illegal Mexican. Median wage income for illegal Mexicans approaches 10 bucks an hour. NOt luxuriant - but it is the median. Half of all illegals make more than that.
Second - I still haven't seen anything to suggest we depend so very much on these illegals to support our economy. The proportion of illegals has gone through the roof in the last twenty years - have the numbers of "crap" jobs been added as quickly? How did we get by before the illegal "boom"?
Lastly, now I'm truly baffled - if you're mostly concerned on the impact on the economy, and favor deportation over amnesty because of the consequneces - I'm not following what it is you think would be the best solution. The very worst of those opposed to the illegals might say "kick 'em all out", but you don't appear to differ from that opinion, at least with respect to the bottom line.
They're NOT being kicked out. No country has ever succeeded in deporting that many. Hell, no country has succeeded in outright KILLING that many, and that is a lot easier to do. In this country, you can't even shoot at the police, blow up buildings and sell out to the enemy in time of war without SOMEONE claiming that rights are being violated. Multiply that by 11 million, and it's basically impossible. SOME kind of path to citizenship has to exist. I don't think that reducing the situation to "guest worker" status for most is EVER going to fly, and no politician will risk his career over it. People will fight it; they will want the benefits of full citizenship, and as others have said - you may well kiss those crap jobs goodbye, as full citizens, the illegals won't want them. Crap jobs allow them decent wages while staying off the grid - citizenship takes away a lot of the incentive.
First, you focus on Mexican pay rates, but as I keep repeating... Mexicans aren't the only illegal immigrants. Many of the lowest paying jobs go to Mexicans, but lots go to Indians, Pakistanis, Chinese, etc. If all you're looking at is Mexicans you're missing out on about 50% of the big picture.
Second, you need to follow the economy. For every 1,000 high-tech, high-salary jobs that open, there are a couple of thousand low-buck jobs that open up to support them. More good jobs mean more houses, means needing more roads, needs more McDonalds's, means more hotels and rec facilities, etc. As more money enters an area, people are less willing to drive to their healthclub 20 miles away. They want one five miles away, so now you need more cleaners, painters, low-buck drywall guys, etc. As long as the economy is growing, the demand for low-buck labor will be growing faster.
Lastly, the reason that you are baffled is that you haven't been reading my posts. You must be sitting there thinking I'm sympathetic to illegals and feel that its okay for them to be here, and that's not what I've been calling for. I couldn't care less about illegal Mexicans, Chinese, Cubans, etc., who come to this country. You could shoot them all at the border for all I care personally for them. What I care about is the US economy, and while I can do without illegal workers, our economy can't.
The way I see it we have three options: We have the status quo, we have deportation, and we have blanket amnesty. If we maintain the status quo, then we have the illegals here working to our mutual benefit (lower costs for goods and services, lower taxes, etc.). That to me is the best way to go, or the least of the three evils depending on you want to look at it.
If by some government miracle we could deport all of the illegals, that wouldn't change the fact that the jobs they are now doing would still need to be done. Who's going to do them? I don't hear anyone saying they want to change careers and start cleaning public restrooms, be a maid in a hotel, or be out picking cabbage all day. So, if "we're" not going to do the work, who is? As I mentioned earlier, CA has already looked at this issue, and found that even after doubling the advertised salaries of migrant workers they couldn't get anyone legal to apply for the work. So what do we do? Triple the salary? Quadruple the salary? And after we finally get salaries high enough where legal workers will do the work, what's the impact on the consumer end? It's going to be big! And even worse, we'll be forcing companies to compete against very-low wage workers in foreign contries. For the produce industry, where profit margins per unit are usually measured in a penny or two, that would mean the end of a lot of agricultural and small businesses in the US that rely on cheap labor. So, our prices are going to go up, and businesses are going to close down. To me that's not an option, even after putting aside the logistics of deportation.
Now look at blanket amnesty. Once these workers become legal, they have nothing to hide from. They can unionize, they can demand benefits and higher salaries, etc, so you're now going to see the same increases in prices and inflation you would see from deportation. But what's worse is that even assuming that every one of those 11 million workers was suddenly making $15 an hour, they still aren't going to add a nickle to your tax base. They will not be making enough money to escape the poverty level due to the salary level and the fact that most of these jobs are not paying year round (seasonal agriculture, road work, facility maintenance, etc.) So what's going to happen is that they will get back every dime they put into the tax till, PLUS they will be eligible for EITC and child care credits, which will increase their payout by several thousands of dollars that they didn't put into the system. To put this in realistic terms, I knew some folks in MD who had two kids. They worked about 30% of the year doing menial jobs, and put about $250 into the US tax till. When they did their return they got a refund check of a little over $7,500!!! So they got their $250 back, plus $7,250+ of someone else's money. Now take that $7,500 times nine or eleven million per year. Also, those people who don't force benefits concessions will be eligible for medicare and medicaid. While illegal they are afraid to use these services, once legal they'll abuse them just like most legal Americans who get them do. So, where's all that extra tax refund money and medicaid/medicare money going to come from? Answer: You, me, Larry, 2A, Vrai and everybody else who's going to be paying higher taxes.
So, what do I think is the best approach here? Do nothing and maintain the status quo. But given a choice between deportation and amnesty, I have to go with deportation in order to avoid the tax bill. But in either case, getting a handle on the current situation is only half of the problem. The other half is keeping other illegals out. So how do we do that? Bankrupt the coffers by building fences around the country and maintaining armed guards on a 27/7/365 basis? Where's the sense in spending trillions of dollars to fix a problem that's only costing us millions? So, the truth is that whether we deport or give amnesty, we're going to be right back to the point we are now in a few years. The only difference is that we'll be several billion dollars pooer for the effort.
" rolls right off my back. This issue is crystal clear to me, so the slams of those who are in favor of the foolish and dangerous don't mean a hill of squat to me.