Larry Gude said:
#1. $3 bill is less than a 10% tax on Exxons earnings last year. There's gotta be a school of thought within the company that sasy 'now is the time to start getting in position to take advantege..."
And...
#2. $70 a barrel is the price Exxon may be getting but their cost, unless it's their hole in the ground is far higher, right? They only netted 10% remember.
Also, with coal > gas breaking even at $30 a barrel, comparable, then the profit potential for coal >gas is clearly higher, yes? I mean. no one is gonna care if gas made from coal settles in at $2.50-$3.00 a gallon at the pump IF IT STAYS there due the the predictability and stability of a domestic supply.
$3 billion per plant. I don't know how many plants we'd need, but if they are anything like refineries that are in the range of 200-400k barrels per day, we'll need quite a few to make a difference.
Exxon only netted 10% because they invested $110 billion into new exploration, new technology, new equipment, increased dividends to shareholders, payed off loans that were required during lean times, interest on those loans, and a huge retirement package for Lee Raymond...
I don't follow why the profit potential for coal is higher? At $70-$30 cost there is $40 to go around. Oil out of land based rigs costs like $5 to pump, you have $65 to line the pockets of the oil men and the Saudis and the refiners and the tankers and everyone else. You could say that there would be less hands to feed using domestic coal, but if there is profit potential, you can bet as many hands as possible will be trying to get involved. That's the way the market works.
The money speaks, people would be happy with a stabile domestic supply if its cheaper than the alternatives for peace of mind, but the fact remains that if we were to produce a cheaper alternative to crude foreign markets would be on it. We have to increase global supply of petroleum products faster than demand, so the price will subside, or we have to cut demand.
We could produce a lot of these plants and have a plentiful supply of gas, but the cost to the pump could still be substantial, and you know the market will only build as many plants as is needed to keep the supply (reasonably) down.