What am I missing about this???

kwillia

kwillia

n/a
This is an interesting 'tool'. When you first click the link you are like, "OMG! Look at all the red!" But then when you zoom in... take Italy for example... do it... zoom in on Italy. When you first see the map all of Italy looks to be ill, but once you zoom in, you realize the vast majority of Italy is... not red.

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards
www.arcgis.com www.arcgis.com
 
Yooper

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
My 2 cents....

In this thread, in this forum, in the news we see a lot of complaining. Mostly complaining that the current administration is composed of a bunch of idiots. But with the complaints there's very little in the way of "what should have been done?" commentary. And even when there has been something along those lines (i.e., "here's what should have been done") there's very little supporting how "what should have been done" results in something different from the "what shouldn't have been done" commentary. Mostly, the results are the same. In a word, unhelpful. And that's what makes this "event" more political than medical.

Sort of like this (hopefully, y'all find this flowchart - from the politics of relationships - funny):

145961


This also applies to how people are reacting.

WRT the ICUs in Italy overflowing.... Do we know why? Sure, the simple answer is that these folks filling the beds have coronavirus. But at this point it could equally be the case that Italian medical authorities are reacting to pressures that they not be seen as MISSING some cases. And people don't want to stay home if they think there is a remote chance they have the coronavirus. So the result is a "the more, the better" dynamic where social circumstances pile on/pile up.

Normal human psychology, right? But that also sends the signal (both explicitly and implicitly) that the coronavirus is an EOTWAWKI event. More people become even more cautious, breeding more fear, breeding more caution, etc. Decisions that are ultimately based not on fact, but fear.

The coronavirus may turn out to be a tough cookie for some, but at this point some of the worry (perhaps, most of the worry) is what FDR cautioned us against: the fear of fear. Meaning, the shadow of the monster is almost always much bigger and much more fearsome than the "monster" itself.

145962


So where does that leave us?

For me, the best measures are the things we should be doing during any bad flu season: cover your gob when you sneeze/cough, don't hawk loogies on the ground, try to self-quarantine when you have a cold (or if you suspect you have one), hydrate, wash hands, eat well, sleep well, exercise.

And I say this being (as I've mentioned before) someone who is in several of the high risk categories for this (or any) flu.

Enjoy the weekend!

--- End of line (MCP)
 
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GWguy

GWguy

*
On the good side, I'm sure that there are some businesses doing better as a result of the virus scare, like fast food takeout, food delivery services, subscription home video services, etc.... anything that keeps personal contact down.
 
Gilligan

Gilligan

#*! boat!
PREMO Member
GWguy said:
On the good side, I'm sure that there are some businesses doing better as a result of the virus scare, like fast food takeout, food delivery services, subscription home video services, etc.... anything that keeps personal contact down.
Click to expand...

There was a line at the Chinese carryout in Callaway. I coughed loudly and then apologized and opined that my cough seemed to be getting worse since I just got back from South Korea.

Poof. No more line.

I like this pandemic.
 
GWguy

GWguy

*
Gilligan said:
There was a line at the Chinese carryout in Callaway. I coughed loudly and then apologized and opined that my cough seemed to be getting worse since I just got back from South Korea.

Poof. No more line.

I like this pandemic.
Click to expand...
omg..... :lmao:
 
truby20

truby20

Fighting like a girl
Yooper said:
My 2 cents....

In this thread, in this forum, in the news we see a lot of complaining. Mostly complaining that the current administration is composed of a bunch of idiots. But with the complaints there's very little in the way of "what should have been done?" commentary. And even when there has been something along those lines (i.e., "here's what should have been done") there's very little supporting how "what should have been done" results in something different from the "what shouldn't have been done" commentary. Mostly, the results are the same. In a word, unhelpful. And that's what makes this "event" more political than medical.

Sort of like this (hopefully, y'all find this flowchart - from the politics of relationships - funny):

View attachment 145961

This also applies to how people are reacting.

WRT the ICUs in Italy overflowing.... Do we know why? Sure, the simple answer is that these folks filling the beds have coronavirus. But at this point it could equally be the case that Italian medical authorities are reacting to pressures that they not be seen as MISSING some cases. And people don't want to stay home if they think there is a remote chance they have the coronavirus. So the result is a "the more, the better" dynamic where social circumstances pile on/pile up.

Normal human psychology, right? But that also sends the signal (both explicitly and implicitly) that the coronavirus is an EOTWAWKI event. More people become even more cautious, breeding more fear, breeding more caution, etc. Decisions that are ultimately based not on fact, but fear.

The coronavirus may turn out to be a tough cookie for some, but at this point some of the worry (perhaps, most of the worry) is what FDR cautioned us against: the fear of fear. Meaning, the shadow of the monster is almost always much bigger and much more fearsome than the "monster" itself.

View attachment 145962

So where does that leave us?

For me, the best measures are the things we should be doing during any bad flu season: cover your gob when you sneeze/cough, don't hawk loogies on the ground, try to self-quarantine when you have a cold (or if you suspect you have one), hydrate, wash hands, eat well, sleep well, exercise.

And I say this being (as I've mentioned before) someone who is in several of the high risk categories for this (or any) flu.

Enjoy the weekend!

--- End of line (MCP)
Click to expand...
The president literally said the number infected was going to go to zero in a few weeks when it was at 15, it’s now over 500



is Italy overdoing it in terms the number of ICU beds being used? I don’t know, I just know we’ve had 21 deaths with 500 infected, making the mortality rate 4.2%, this years flu is 0.1%

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

so keep calling it the flu, crud, cold, whatever, just follow dear leaders lead.
 
Spitfire

Spitfire

Active Member
truby20 said:
The president literally said the number infected was going to go to zero in a few weeks when it was at 15, it’s now over 500



is Italy overdoing it in terms the number of ICU beds being used? I don’t know, I just know we’ve had 21 deaths with 500 infected, making the mortality rate 4.2%, this years flu is 0.1%

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

so keep calling it the flu, crud, cold, whatever, just follow dear leaders lead.
Click to expand...


Greetings:

One week ago today when we awoke, we had 4 cases. As of this moment, 512 cases.

By weeks end, several thousand without question.

By contrast, a fortnight ago Italy had fewer cases than we do now. According to @vraiblonde M.D., PhD, the Italians overreacted and enacted a LOCKDOWN (nutty fascists that they are) and today they have over 7,000 cases I think.
 
Gilligan

Gilligan

#*! boat!
PREMO Member
Spitfire said:
Greetings:

One week ago today when we awoke, we had 4 cases. As of this moment, 512 cases.

By weeks end, several thousand without question.

By contrast, a fortnight ago Italy had fewer cases than we do now. According to @vraiblonde M.D., PhD, the Italians overreacted and enacted a LOCKDOWN (nutty fascists that they are) and today they have over 7,000 cases I think.
Click to expand...
How many have died in the US from the flu in the last 12 months?
 
Yooper

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
truby20 said:
The president literally said....
Click to expand...
Fair point. Here's my "rebuttal": if one finds that what Trump said is/was wrong (to say), what should have he said instead?

As I've said in numerous threads (on this and other subjects) the job of the President is to show resolve, demonstrate optimism, etc. That is what he did; the factual content of the words wasn't nearly as important as conveying optimism. Because I know that, I didn't feel the need to play Joe Friday; instead, what I needed from Trump was to be the confident field general (if you saw the movie "Patton" you can see this principle in play; there's a great scene that shows him being far more unsure in private than he was in public, but he kept his fears private).

Anyway, so if one disagrees with that perspective (i.e., that Trump should speak as the confident leader), then what should Trump have said? That's why I referenced FDR; should FDR - instead of saying "the only thing we have to fear...." said something along the lines of "Yes, terrible. The Depression is so bad that we will all starve shortly"? Or later, after Pearl Harbor, "Our military forces have been soundly defeated across the Pacific and there's a good chance the Japanese will shortly be on the West Coast (and oh, btw, England is just about knocked out of the war)" (because, btw, both were very high probabilities)?

That we got out of the Depression and prevailed in WWII was because people felt they had permission to be optimistic (instead of how most were actually feeling). I'm sure there were folks back then who thought FDR was a misguided lunatic; history was on the side of both economic collapse and a Japanese victory. So, regarding those critics, what did they offer other than to give up? Nothing. Same here with this coronavirus. Folks can say Trump is an idiot and they could be correct. But what these critics don't offer is an alternative for the narrative.

Should we have tested earlier and more often? Some of the critics say yes. But I could give an equal number of reasons as to why that wouldn't be a good idea. And on and on.

WRT the mortality rate you quoted, do we know the specifics of it? A simple percentage just doesn't do us any good; what were the ages of the 21? Their physical health? Where does the 500 come from? Confirmed cases? Well, then what about the idea being used by critics that the actual number is far greater than the confirmed? If that's true (and I believe it is) the death percentage could be far lower than 4%. Bottom line, too little data being used to offer "conclusions" that I'm not at all sure are warranted (because we don't have enough data to know if they're warranted).

If I've misunderstood your point, my apologies. But I remain where I've been since the beginning of this: the coronavirus is more a political issue than a medical one. All the complaints about the administration are just "noise"; the "signal" (to use the Nate Silver idea) is that medical experts are all counseling the same thing: do the things one does during flu season and even if this does become a more serious than usual flu the recovery rate is still 99%, etc. So my advice to all is the same advice I tell myself: Keep calm and carry on! We know that pessimism is contagious; we often forget that optimism is, as well. The former is destructive. Hence, why I choose the latter.

--- End of line (MCP)
 
Bann

Bann

Doris Day meets Lady Gaga
PREMO Member
Just received another email from CPAC 2020:


We continue to work closely with the Maryland Department of Health since our conference was in the State of Maryland.

The Dept of Health has screened thousands of employees from the Gaylord National Resort and Conference Center and the Residence Inn.

At this time, not a single person has reported any unusual illness. Thus, the Dept of Health is not restricting the movements or interactions with others of those hotel employees.

The Dept of Health has however encouraged these employees to take their temperature twice a day and to keep an eye open for any unusual symptoms.

We think that is good advice and encourage our attendees and participants to do the same.

We continue to remain in close contact with the infected individual and he continues to be doing better. Also, at this point, no other CPAC attendee, participant or staff has tested positive for coronavirus.

If you are exhibiting symptoms, you should immediately contact your local Department of Health.

Additionally, ACU/CPAC Chairman Matt Schlapp addressed the situation on Fox &Friends this morning: https://video.foxnews.com/v/6139433957001#sp=show-clips
Our mailing address is:
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AND...my temp is still normal. :yay:
 
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